APCEDI ALERT 07F #5, 2005:Strengthening Cyclone Meena Poses Serious Danger to Southern Cook Islands

Tropical Cyclone Meena continues to strengthen and is now a fully fledged Category 1 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It has picked up some forward speed and is now moving eastsoutheast at 8 knots. It is forecast to continue slowly strengthening and turn southeast toward the Southern Cook Islands. Meena is currently about 120 mile southwest of the Northern Cook Island of Suwarrow. Suwarrow is a small atoll renown for its birdlife with a transient population of less than 10 persons. If any persons are currently on Suwarrow, they should take immediate preparedness actions in line for a Category-1 Cyclone.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Gale Warning for Suwarrow Island and a Strong Wind Warning for the rest of the Northern Cook Islands as outlined below. Advisories are continued for the Southern Cooks. On its current forecast track and rate of strengthening, the intensifying storm could pass near or over Palmerston Atoll, Rarotonga and other major islands of the Southern Cooks in 2 days time as a major Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This is now a very dangerous situation for Rarotonga, Palmerston Atoll and other the Southern Cook Islands. All interests in the Cook Islands especially the Southern Cooks should monitor local media about the storm and initiate preparedness activities immediately in line with a Category 3 Cyclone. All local disasters authorities should now be undertaking disaster preparedness plans in line with a major cyclone.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale indicates the following damage regime: Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN for Northern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 04/2051 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [965hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 165.0W AT 041500 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 8 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS INTENSIFYING. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW AT 050000UTC AND 130 MILES SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW AT 051200UTC. ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAIN BANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.

FOR SUWARROW: NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS ABOUT NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 050000UTC OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/