APCEDI ALERT BOBW Cyclone 02B #8, 2005: Cyclone 02B Slowly moves toward Sri Lanka; Watch raised for Andaman Islands

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and Indian Departments of Meteorology continue to issue alerts for Cyclone 02B, located 500 km east-southeast of Pottuvil. Cyclone 02B is currently moving northwest at 6 kt with a general forecast trend slowly to the north and then northeast. The cyclone has weakened overnight, and the JTWC is now forecasting that the system will dissipate east of Sri Lanka in the next 24-48 hours.

The main areas of convection of this system lie well off the Sri Lanka coast although associated convection continues to bring intermittent showers to Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota Districts, and these could become more widespread and heavy in the next 24 hours over the East, Uva, North Northcentral and South Provinces depending on the system's track. The intensity of rain and wind for Sri Lanka will depend on how close the cyclone comes toward the east coast before turning northeast toward the Andaman Islands and Burma.

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Galle and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is an increasingly serious situation that must be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

Given the northeastern turn that is forecast in the next 2-3 days, all interests in the Andaman Islands of India from Little Andaman northward should pay close attention to this storm. All interests in the Coco Islands and Irrawaddy Delta of Burma should also be on alert.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 5.2N7 85.6E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK POLEWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AND INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND 172100Z1.//

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dynamic/severe.htm

CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY NO. FOURTEEN BASED ON 1800 UTC CHARTS OF 16 JANUARY 2005. THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH INDIAN OCEAN, REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY. SYSTEM CENTRE IS POORLY DEFINED AND LAY CENTRED AT 161800 UTC NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 DEG. NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.5 DEG. EAST. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. CURRENT INTENSITY T2.5 REPEAT T2.5. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 hPa. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND 35 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. FORECAST : THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME TIME. SEA CONDITION WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF SYSTEM CENTRE LIKELY TO BE VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. FORECAST INTENSITY T 2.5 AT 171800 UTC.


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

16 January 2005
The cyclonic storm in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists. It was centred about 500 kms to the southeast of Pottuvil coast at 1500 hours today (16th). Scattered showers accompanied by fairly strong winds at times are expected in the Eastern and Uva provinces and in Hambantota, Nuwaraeliya and Matale districts. Shipping and fishing communities are hereby advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Hambantota via Pottuvil as the seas may be fairly rough.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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