APCEDI ALERT BOBW Cyclone 02B #5, 2005: Cyclone Alert for Sri Lanka and Bay of Bengal

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued its first alert for Cyclone 02B, located 600 km east-southest of Hambantota. Cyclone 02B is currently quasi-stationary with a general forecast trend slowly to the northwest. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology continues to issue advisories on this system as it develops. Associated convection with this system has started bringing intermittent showers to Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota Districts, and these are forecast to become more widespread and heavy in the next 24 hours over the East, Uva and South Provinces .

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Galle and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is an increasingly serious situation that must be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 5.0N5 87.0E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY QUASISTATIONARY WITH A MEASURED MOTION OF WEST NORTHWEST AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH GOOD OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SITS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATOR. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OUT OF INDIA. TC 02B IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PULSE IN INTENSITY AS NEITHER THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOR CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION PAST WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE APPROACH OF THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROF, LATE, WILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW THEREBY INCREASING THE INTENSITY BY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OF NOGAPS, UKMET AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 141321ZJAN05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO22 PGTW 141330). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150300Z9, 150900Z5, 151500Z2 AND 152100Z9.//


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

14 January 2005
The depression in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists. At 1600hrs it was located approximately 600 km to the east of Hambantota. It is likely to intensify slowly during the next 24 hrs. This system is being monitored very closely and arrangements have been made to disseminate warnings and information to the public when required. Shipping and fishing communities are hereby advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Hambantota via Pottuvil and look for latest weather advisories from the Meteorological Department. Under the influence of the depression, cloudy skies are expected over most parts of the island tomorrow. Fairly strong winds, rains/thunderstorms are expected in the East, Uva and Southern provinces. The seas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Galle via Hambantota will be fairly rough.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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