APCEDI ALERT BOBW (WTIO21) #4, 2005: Cyclone Formation Alert Continues for Sri Lanka and Bay of Bengal

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to issue a Cyclone Formation Alert for the tropical depression southeast of Sri Lanka moving west-northwest toward the Sri Lanka coast. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology continues to issue advisories on this system as it develops. Associated convection with this system could start bring heavy rains onshore to Sri Lanka anywhere from Jaffna to Hambantota in the next 24 hours. All interests in Sri Lanka and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is an increasingly serious situation that must be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /131800Z-141800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACTMETOCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.5N8, 84.7N9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N9 88.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING NEAR AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW POTENTIAL AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

14 January 2005
The depression in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists. At 1600hrs it was located approximately 600 km to the east of Hambantota. It is likely to intensify slowly during the next 24 hrs. This system is being monitored very closely and arrangements have been made to disseminate warnings and information to the public when required. Shipping and fishing communities are hereby advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Hambantota via Pottuvil and look for latest weather advisories from the Meteorological Department. Under the influence of the depression, cloudy skies are expected over most parts of the island tomorrow. Fairly strong winds, rains/thunderstorms are expected in the East, Uva and Southern provinces. The seas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Galle via Hambantota will be fairly rough.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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