APCEDI ALERT Cyclone Kerry (05F) #12, 2005: Cyclone Kerry Forecast to Dissipate in the Coral Sea

Cyclone Kerry has rapidly lost strength over night and this morning. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has forecast Cyclone Kerry to slowly meander southwest and then dissipate in the next 2-3 three days southwest of the Isle Chesterfields Group. Thus, the threat to Grand Isle and other main islands of Nouvelle Caledonie is now greatly reduced. Fortunately for Grande Isle, rain showers from the outer feeder bands are bringing some relief to drought-affected areas, and given Kerry's slow movement in the next few days, these showers are forecast to continue.

Although the threat from Cyclone Kerry is now greatly reduced, all interests in Nouvelle Caledonie should continue to monitor the progress of this storm, and residents of Norfolk Island should also keep a close watch.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 159.0E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 102 KNOTS AND A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP INFLOW OF COOL, DRY AIR INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL, DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6.//

METEO FRANCE continues to issue Special Maritime Bulletins for the waters north and west of Grande Isle. Special attention should be paid to maritime interests in the Isles Suprises and Isles Chesterfields.

METEO FRANCE
http://www.meteo.nc/

A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 023.
B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 11/01/05 A 03:00 UTC.
C: A 00:00 UTC LE 11/01/05, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "KERRY" :
- CENTREE PAR 19,3 SUD 159,1 EST. POSITION MOYENNE.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 975 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT OUEST-NORD-OUEST 04 NOEUDS.
D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 60 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 90 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 20 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 40 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 40 ET 150 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE.
E: DURANT CES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, "KERRY" S'EST DEPALCE TRES LENTEMENT EN SE COMBLANT UN PEU. IL DEVRAIT MAINTENANT SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST EN CONTINUANT A S'AFFAIBLIR.
F: POSITIONS PREVUES :
LE 11/01/05 A 0600 UTC : 19,5 SUD 159,0 EST.
LE 11/01/05 A 1200 UTC : 19,9 SUD 158,9 EST.
LE 11/01/05 A 1800 UTC : 20,3 SUD 158,8 EST.
LE 12/01/05 A 0000 UTC : 20,7 SUD 158,7 EST.
LE 12/01/05 A 0600 UTC : 21,1 SUD 158,5 EST.
LE 12/01/05 A 1200 UTC : 21,5 SUD 158,2 EST.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 11/01/05 A 09:00 UTC.=


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/