APCEDI ALERT Tropical Storm Kerry (05F) #8, 2005: Tropical Storm Kerry Exits Vanuatu

Tropical Storm Kerry picked up forward speed this morning and afternoon, and the centre has just passed across Vanuatu and exited just off the southwest Malakula Coast. Given the intensity and speed of the system, minimal damage is expected although isolated pockets of damage may have occurred to gardens, crops and bush houses.

APCEDI's Cyclone Watcher in Nduindui, Ambae, just north of where the centre passed, reported very heavy rains and gust for 3-4 hours early in the morning, but since late morning the weather has been improving although it is still gusty. He reports no damage other than lots of leaves and small branches down. This should be typical of what occurred throughout the affected islands. Spiral bands with occasional heavy showers and gusty winds can still be expected over the next 24 hours anywhere in North and Central Vanuatu.

The Fiji Meteorological Service continues to give Special Advisories on Vanuatu. All warnings for Fiji have now been discontinued.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Special Advisory Number TEN for Vanuatu on TC KERRY issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 07/0200 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [990hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 166.7E AT 070000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 HRVIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

A CDO HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS ALTHOUGH MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MAINTAINED A CLEAR SLOT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A LARGE BANDING FEATURE PERSISTS TO THE EAST OF THE CDO. A WELL DEFINED LLCC IS EVIDENT ON 2154 UTC MICROWAVE IMAGE. SST AROUND 30C. CDO DIAMETER 1.2 DEGREES YIELDS DT 0F 3.0. PT AND MET ALSO 3.0. DVORAK ANALYSIS T3.0/3.0PLUS/W0.5/24HRS. TC KERRY IS MOVING WSW NORTH OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UPPER OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO NORTH BY UPPER TROUGH, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW AS TC MOVEMENT IS PARALLEL TO UPPER WIND FLOW. TC KERRY IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE VANUATU ISLAND GROUP AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN WSW MOVEMENT FOR NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

FORECASTS :

AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 17.2S 164.0E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 18.2S 161.9E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :

AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.6S 160.6E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 18.9S 159.9E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

TC KERRY IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM VANUATU. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON MALEKULA AND NEARBY ISLANDS. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. LOCAL FLOODING EXPECTED. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS EASING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC KERRY.//

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METEO FRANCE has now started to issue Special Maritime Bulletins for the waters north of Grande Isle, New Caledonie. Special attention should be paid to maritime interests in the Isles Suprises and Isles Chesterfields.

METEO FRANCE
http://www.meteo.nc/

WWNC01 NWBB 070235
A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 006.
B: AVIS DE COUP DE VENT REDIGE LE 07/01/05 A 02:30 UTC.
C: A 00:00 UTC LE 07/01/05, DEPRESSION TROPICALE MODEREE "KERRY" :
- CENTREE PAR 16,4 SUD 166,7 EST. POSITION MOYENNE.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 990 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT OUEST-SUD-OUEST 18 NOEUDS.
D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 40 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 60 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 20 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 120 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE.
E: "KERRY" CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS SURPRISES. LA PRESSION AU CENTRE EST POUR LE MOMENT STATIONNAIRE.
F: POSITIONS PREVUES :
LE 07/01/05 A 0600 UTC : 16,9 SUD 165,7 EST.
LE 07/01/05 A 1200 UTC : 17,4 SUD 164,5 EST.
LE 07/01/05 A 1800 UTC : 17,7 SUD 163,3 EST.
LE 08/01/05 A 0000 UTC : 18,0 SUD 162,4 EST.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 07/01/05 A 08:00 UTC.=

All people in Northern and Central Vanuatu should continue to monitor the progress of the storm as it exits the county. All concerns in New Caledonia should remain on alert and monitor the situation. However, it looks like the threat to the Pacific Islands is lessening and the threat to coastal Queensland now increasing.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/