APCEDI ALERT Tropical Storm Kerry (05F) #6, 2005: Tropical Storm Kerry Bears Down on Northern and Central Vanuatu

Tropical Storm Kerry is now bearing down on Northern and Central Vanuatu. The centre of the system currently lies about 100 east northeast of Maewo Island. It is still possible that it may gain Category 1 Cyclone strength before hitting Vanuatu, but it is forecast to hit as a Tropical Storm in its passage through Northern/Central Vanuatu. This should keep damage levels low to moderate in isolated places. Weak structures, gardens and crops are likely to be most affected.

The Fiji Meteorological Service continues to give Special Advisories on Vanuatu and continues to maintain a Strong Wind Warning for the Vatu-i-Ra Passage and Northern Yasawa and Northern Vanua Levu Waters.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Special Advisory Number SEVEN for Vanuatu on TC KERRY issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 06/0836 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [987hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 170.3E AT 060600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO TURN WEST SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE CDO AND BANDING FEATURE HAVE WEAKENED SINCE PAST 6 HOURS. LATEST IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTION BEGINING TO ORGAINISE NEAR LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AIDED BY DIURNAL INFLUENCE. LLCC IS JUST NORTH OF DEEP CONVECTION. MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DRAWN INTO NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SST AROUND 30C. DT FROM BANDING FEATURE WITH WRAP OF 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS DT 0F 3.0. PT AND MET SUGGESTS 3.5. FT BASED ON PT. DVORAK ANALYSIS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12HRS. UPPER OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS. WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE INTERACTION WITH LAND OCCURS AROUND 061800 UTC. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE KERRY SOUTHWEST THEN WEST SOUTHWEST, WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :

AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 15.7S 167.6E MOV WSW AT 14 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 16.3S 164.6E MOV WSW AT 14 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :

AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 16.7S 162.4E MOV W AT 13 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 17.1S 161.1E MOV WSW AT 11 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

TC KERRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS IN MAEWO, AOBA PENTECOST ISLANDS FROM 061500 UTC, INCLUDING ESPIRITU SANTO, MALEKULA AND NEARBY ISLANDS BY 061800 TC. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAEWO, AOBA, PENTECOST AMBRYM WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS AND THEN EXTEND TO EPI, ESPIRITU SANTO, MALEKULA AND EFATE AND NEARBY ISLANDS BY 061500 UTC. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS EXPECTED. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC KERRY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 061430 UTC.


FMS has also issued the following:

Marine Weather Bulletin Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 7:30pm on Thursday the 6th of January 2005 A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VATU-I-RA PASSAGE, NORTHERN YASAWA AND NORTHERN VANUA LEVU WATERS.

FMS has discontinued its Strong Wind Warning for Rotuma as the storm moves away from this area.

All people in Northern and Central Vanuatu should rush to complete disaster preparedness activities. This includes all the islands mentioned in the Vanuatu advisory above. All concerns in the Temotu Province of the Eastern Solomons (including Santa Cruz Group, Anuta and Tikopia), Northern Fiji Waters and Southern Vanuatu should monitor this tropical storm closely and be ready to take cyclone preparedness measures immediately should the storm threaten. All concerns in Southern Vanuatu, Fiji and New Caledonia should remain on alert and monitor the situation.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/