APCEDI ALERT Tropical Storm Kerry (05F) #5, 2005: Tropical Storm Kerry Special Advisory for Vanuatu and Strong Wind Warning for Fiji

The Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) has now officially named Tropical Storm 05F as Kerry. Tropical Storm Kerry is now approaching Vanuatu at Tropical Storm strength. It is possible that it will gain Category 1 Cyclone strength before hitting Vanuatu, but it is forecast to remain a fairly weak cyclone in its passage through Northern/Central Vanuatu. FMS continues to give Special Advisories on Vanuatu and have now raised a Strong Wind Warning for the Vatu-i-Ra Passage and Northern Yasawa and Northern Vanua Levu Waters.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Special Advisory Number FIVE for Vanuatu on TC KERRY issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 05/2025 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [995hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 171.5E AT 051800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO AND BANDING FEATURE IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. LLCC NOW APPEARS TO BE UNDER NORTHERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN CDO. MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION IN WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SST AROUND 30C. CDO DIAMETER 1.2 DEGREES YIELDS A DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF T3.0/3.0/D0.5/12HRS. TC KERRY IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A 250HPA OUTFLOW AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE DUE TO APPROACHING SHARP TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM. WEAK NORTHERLY ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DECREASE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE KERRY SOUTHWEST THEN WEST, WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 14.6S 169.2E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 15.4S 166.2E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 15.8S 163.3E MOV W AT 15 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 16.0S 160.9E MOV W AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

IF TC KERRY MOVES AS FORECAST THEN DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF VANUATU, ABOUT AND NORTH OF EFATE FROM 060600 UTC. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS EXPECTED. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC KERRY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060230 UTC.

FMS has also issued the following:

Marine Weather Bulletin, Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 11:10am on Thursday the 6th of January 2005 A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VATU-I-RA PASSAGE, NORTHERN YASAWA AND NORTHERN VANUA LEVU WATERS.//

FMS has discontinued its Strong Wind Warning for Rotuma as the storm moves away from this area.

All concerns in the Temotu Province of the Eastern Solomons (including Santa Cruz Group, Anuta and Tikopia), Northern Fiji Waters and Northern and Central Vanuatu should monitor this tropical storm closely and be ready to take cyclone preparedness measures immediately should the storm threaten. All concerns in Southern Vanuatu, Fiji and New Caledonia should remain on alert and monitor the situation.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/