APCEDI ALERT Tropical Storm Kerry (05F) #7, 2005: Tropical Storm Kerry Crossing Northern Vanuatu

Tropical Storm Kerry is now beginning to move across Vanuatu. The centre of the system currently lies just to the east Pentecost Island. On its current forecast track moving southwest at 10 kts, it will cross Pentecost Island in the next few hours and then pass north of Ambrym later this afternoon. It will then cross Malakula later tonight and exit Vanuatu territory by late tomorrow morning. Kerry has weakened overnight, so it is forecast to cross Vanuatu as a weak Tropical Storm and may even weaken below this strength as it interacts with the bigger islands. This should keep damage levels low with possible isolated areas of moderate damage. Weak structures, gardens and crops are likely to be most affected. Because it is moving at a consistent speed of 10 kts, major flooding is not likely although isolated flash flooding or landslides could occur.

The Fiji Meteorological Service continues to give Special Advisories on Vanuatu. All warnings for Fiji have now been discontinued.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Special Advisory Number NINE for Vanuatu on TC KERRY issued from RSMC NADI Jan 06/2020 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [990hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 168.4E AT 061800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS DECREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION HAS WEAKENED AS MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR WAS DRAWN INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS AND A LARGE BANDING FEATURE PERSISTS TO THE EAST OF BUT SEPARATE FROM THE SYSTEM CENTRE. WELL DEFINED LLCC EVIDENT ON 1343 UTC AQUA-1 MICROWAVE IMAGE. SST AROUND 30C. BANDING FEATURE CLOSE TO CENTRE WITH WRAP OF 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS DT 0F 3.0. PT AND MET ALSO 3.0. DVORAK ANALYSIS T3.0/3.0/W0.5/12HRS. TC KERRY REMAINS IN A WEAK UPPER [250 HPA] TROUGH AREA NORTH OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UPPER OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN EASTERN SECTORS AND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. TC KERRY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER ISLANDS IN VANUATU DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS THEN SLOWLY REINTENSIFY ONCE CLEAR OF THE ISLANDS. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN WSW MOVEMENT FOR NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

FORECASTS :

AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 16.5S 166.4E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 17.4S 163.5E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 18.5S 160.7E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 18.9S 159.5E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

TC KERRY IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ON PENTECOST, AMBRYM, MAEWO AND AOBA. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO EPI, MALEKULA, ESPIRITU SANTO AND NEARBY ISLANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH, INCLUDING EFATE, ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE EDGE OF THE GALE AREA. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS EXPECTED. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC KERRY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 070230 UTC.

All people in Northern and Central Vanuatu should rush to complete disaster preparedness activities. This includes all the islands mentioned in the Vanuatu advisory above. All concerns in Southern Vanuatu should monitor this tropical storm closely and be ready to take cyclone preparedness measures immediately should the storm threaten. All concerns in Southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia should remain on alert and monitor the situation.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/