APCEDI ALERT Cyclone Kerry (05F) #9, 2005: Cyclone Kerry In Coral Sea

Cyclone Kerry moved into the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia and Southeast of Rennell Island In the Solomons. It has strengthened rapidly in the last 24 hours into a Category 2 Cyclone and is moving west at 13 kts towards the Queensland Coast. It is currently not threatening any inhabited land or island areas. However, forecasters at the joint typhoon warning centre are expecting the storm to slow in the next few days and then possibly recurve south. If it does stall in the Coral Sea and either doubles back or recurves, it could still be a threat to New Caledonia, Vanuatu or even the southern Solomon outliers of Rennell and Bellona.

Therefore interests in Solomons, Vanuatu and New Caledonia should continue to monitor this cyclone for any change in its course in the next few days.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 160.2E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45, 65, AND 75 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 072140Z4 SSMI PASS AT 85 GHZ DEPICTS A SYMMETRICAL, CLOUD FILLED EYE. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TO SLOW DOWN TO NEAR QUASISTATIONARY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDN, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, WBAR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MM5 IS A SIGNFICANT POLEWARD OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE OTHER MODELS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/