APCEDI ALERT Tropical WTIO21 #1, 2005: Tropical Storm Forming off Sri Lanka

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has issued a Cyclone Formation Alert WTIO21 for a Tropical Depression off the Southeast Coast of Sri Lanka. Normally this would not merit an APCEDI Alert. However, given the critical situation with the tsunami and recent floods, this small tropical storm could greatly affect tsunami relief efforts especially in southern areas of Sri Lanka. Already bands of heavy rains are moving into hard hit Ampara District. This could result in widespread coastal and inland flooding from Batticaloa though to Galle.

All tsunami relief personnel should monitor the situation with this storm and take necessary measures for themselves and their communities in which they are working.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

WTIO21 PGTW 072300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 072300Z JAN 05//RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 85 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.0N3 85.5E8 TO 4.8N2 82.6E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 072130Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.5N8 84.7E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N0 84.7E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.5N8 84.7N9, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SPIRAL BANDS ARE BECOMING EVIDENT POINTING TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ADEQUATE OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. HOWEVER, MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS STILL EXISTS JUST WEST OF THE FEATURE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 082251Z8.//


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/