APCEDI ALERT Tropical Cyclone 01B (WTIO21) #2, 2005: Tropical Cyclone Bearing Down on Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone O1B has formed off the southeast coast of Sri Lanka. This is a minimal strength cyclone, but given the past tsunami damage along with recent flooding, this is an extremely serious situation. Given that its moving slowly and erratically much of southern and eastern Sri Lanka could receive very heavy rain causing widespread coastal and inland flooding. Tidal surge flooding is also possible. This will be accompanied by heavy seas and strong, gusty winds. Heavy rainfall is occurring in hard-hit Ampara District and will continue across much of Southern Sri Lanka today and tomorrow.

All tsunami relief personnel should monitor the situation with this storm and take necessary measures for themselves and their communities in which they are working.

Once the storm moves across Southern Sril Lanka, it could pose a threat to both Tamil Nadu and Kerala States in India further complicating relief efforts there.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 5.3N8 83.7E8. ROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE, DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES. DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 01B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, ALTERING TO A WESTWARD TRACK BY THE MID-PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL ADVERSELY AFFECT INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATE PERIOD. DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH WIDE VARIATION IN THE EXTENT OF THE CONSOLIDATION AND THE RESULTING STEERING INFLUENCES. TWO ALTERNATE SCENARIOS EXIST BASED ON THESE MODELS, WITH AN EASTWARD TRACK AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM UNTIL THE MID-PERIOD IN NOGAPS AND, ALTERNATELY, A WESTWARD TURN EARLIER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DEMONSTRATED IN NCEP GFS. DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATION IN ALL AVAILABLE AIDS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL FORECAST IS ONLY MODERATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 09 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 072300Z JAN 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 072251) NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2, 090900Z8, 091500Z5 AND 092100Z2.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/