APCEDI ALERT Cyclone Kerry (05F) #11, 2005: Cyclone Kerry Forecast to Recurve Back toward Nouvelle Caledonie

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has forecast that Cyclone Kerry will begin recurving tonight toward the south-southeast back toward Nouvelle Caledonie. On the current JTWC forecast track the centre of Cyclone Kerry would pass over the Chesterfields Group and then parallel the west coast of the Grand Isle about 300 nm off shore as a strong Category 2 cyclone. This is far enough off shore that damage on Grande Isle should be minimal, but much of New Caledonia would receive badly needed rains. Nouvelle Caledonie has been plagued with drought and forest fires for over 5 months.

All interests in Nouvelle Caledonie should monitor the progress of this storm carefully and be prepared to take precautions as advised by the Government should the storm approach. Residents of Norfolk Island should also keep a close watch.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 158.8E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 08P IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5.//

METEO FRANCE continues to issue Special Maritime Bulletins for the waters north and west of Grande Isle. Special attention should be paid to maritime interests in the Isles Suprises and Isles Chesterfields.

METEO FRANCE
http://www.meteo.nc/

A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 019.
B: AVIS DE CYCLONE REDIGE LE 10/01/05 A 02:40 UTC.
C: A 00:00 UTC LE 10/01/05, CYCLONE TROPICAL "KERRY" :
- CENTRE PAR 18,3 SUD 159,0 EST. POSITION BONNE.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 960 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT OUEST 03 NOEUDS.
D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 75 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 110 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 10 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER ENORME. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 63 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 100 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 20 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER ENORME. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 70 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 20 ET 60 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 60 ET 150 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE.
E: "KERRY" DEVRAIT DESORMAIS S'ELOIGNER VERS L'OUEST S'ACCELERANT UN PEU SON DEPLACEMENT.
F: POSITIONS PREVUES :
LE 10/01/05 A 0600 UTC : 18,4 SUD 158,8 EST.
LE 10/01/05 A 1200 UTC : 18,4 SUD 158,5 EST.
LE 10/01/05 A 1800 UTC : 18,4 SUD 158,2 EST.
LE 11/01/05 A 0000 UTC : 18,4 SUD 157,8 EST.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 10/01/05 A 08:00 UTC. =

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/