APCEDI ALERT Cyclone Kerry (05F) #10, 2005: Cyclone Kerry Slow Moving In Coral Sea

Cyclone Kerry remains largely stationary to very slow moving in the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia and south of Rennell in the Solomons in the area of the New Caledonia outliers of the Isles Suprises and Isles Chesterfields. It remains a Category 2 storm. It is forecast to move very slowly westward over the next 24 hours. If it does stall in the Coral Sea and either doubles back or recurves, it could still be a threat to New Caledonia, Vanuatu or even the southern Solomon outliers of Rennell and Bellona. Also some later models are showing a turn to the northwest so Interests in Milne Bay Province of Papua New Guinea should monitor the progress of this cyclone.

Therefore interests in Solomons, Vanuatu, PNG and New Caledonia and maritime interests in the Coral Sea should continue to monitor this cyclone for any change in its course in the next few days.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 159.1E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF POUM, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A 11 NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. TRACK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLOW AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. MODEL DEPICTED STEERING ENVIRONMENTS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH 3 CLUSTERS REMAINING. UKMET EGRR AND NCEP GFS STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST, TOWARD THE EQUATOR, WITH THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE ALTERING TO THE RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. GFDN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOGAPS TRACKS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING TRACK SPEED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH CONSIDERATION OF THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/