APCEDI ALERT Tropical Cyclone 01B (WTIO21) #3, 2005: Tropical Cyclone 01B Stalls Off Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone O1B has stalled off the southeast coast of Sri Lanka. Although this is a minimal strength cyclone, given the past tsunami damage along with recent flooding, this is an extremely serious situation. Given that its moving slowly and erratically, much of southern and eastern Sri Lanka could receive very heavy rain causing widespread coastal and inland flooding. Tidal surge flooding is also possible. This will be accompanied by heavy seas and strong, gusty winds. Heavy rainfall continues to affect hard-hit Ampara and Hambantota Districts and will continue across much of Southern Sri Lanka today and tomorrow.

All tsunami relief personnel should monitor the situation with this storm and take necessary measures for themselves and their communities in which they are working. Amapara, Hambantota, Matara, Galle and Kalutara Districts are particularly at risk although all Southern and Eastern areas should be on alert. Highland Districts should also be on alert for flash flooding in hill areas.

Once the storm moves across Southern Sri Lanka, it could pose a threat to both Tamil Nadu and Kerala States in India further complicating relief efforts there.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTH NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST POLEWARD BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 9 FEET. REFER TO WWPWIO31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4, 100900Z0, 101500Z7 AND 102100Z4.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/