APCEDI ALERT BOBW (WTIO21) #3, 2005: Cyclone Formation Alert for Sri Lanka and Bay of Bengal

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has now issued a Cyclone Formation Alert for the tropical depression between Sumatra and Sri Lanka moving west-northwest toward Sri Lanka. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology has also started issuing advisories on this system as it continues to develop. Associated convection with this system could start bring heavy rains onshore to Sri Lanka anywhere from Jaffna to Hambantota in the next 12-36 hours. All interests in Sri Lanka and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is an increasingly serious situation that must be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

WTIO21 PGTW 131330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/131321ZJAN2005// RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 5.9N4 87.1E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131130Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.9N4 87.1E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N6 89.5E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.5N8 84.7N9, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SPIRAL BANDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHERN SECTION POINTING TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 141330Z2.//


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/cityfc.html

A depression has formed in the South Bay of Bengal. It is about 650 km to the South East of Eastern coast of Sri Lanka by 1100 hours today the 13th. Department has made all the arrangement to monitor the system and disseminate any warning to the public and relevant authorities if required. At present, the shipping and fishing communities are advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Hambantota and watch for latest weather advisories from Meteorological Department. Tomorrow, showers will occur at several places in the Eastern and Uva provinces and in Hambantota district.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Sri Lanka Appeal, go to http://www.afap.org