APCEDI ALERT BOBW #2, 2005: Weather Alert for Bay of Bengal and Sri Lanka

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is continuing to monitor a tropical depression between Sumatra and Sri Lanka that has a fair to good potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology has also started issuing advisories on this system as it continues to develop. Associated convection with this system could start bring heavy rains onshore to Sri Lanka anywhere from Jaffna to Hambantota in the next 12-36 hours. All interests in Sri Lanka and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN /121800Z-131800ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N6, 89.5E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N5 89.8E5, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDING FEATURES INTO THE LARGE LLCC, HOWEVER THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS EVIDENT. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE PREVIOUSLY ELONGATED LLCC IS NOW CONSOLIDATING WITH HIGHER WINDS EVIDENT TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/cityfc.html

A depression has formed in the South Bay of Bengal. It is about 650 km to the South East of Eastern coast of Sri Lanka by 1100 hours today the 13th. Department has made all the arrangement to monitor the system and disseminate any warning to the public and relevant authorities if required. At present, the shipping and fishing communities are advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Hambantota and watch for latest weather advisories from Meteorological Department. Tomorrow, showers will occur at several places in the Eastern and Uva provinces and in Hambantota district.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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