APCEDI ALERT ETW(S2) #2, 2005: Weather Alert for East Timor

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to monitor a tropical depression that has a fair potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. This system is forecast to stay well south of East Timor, but all interests in East Timor and adjacent Indonesian islands should monitor the system carefully as it develops in the Timor Sea.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN /121800Z-131800ZJAN2005//

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0, 128.7E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 127.0E0, OVER LAND NEAR KALUMBURU, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLIC DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAK, BUT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, LLCC. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LLCC MAY BE LOCATED OVER LAND. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. DUE TO EXPECTED IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LLCC MOVES OVER OPEN WATER IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.


FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDDP0002.txt

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST] Thursday 13 January 2005

The CYCLONE WATCH between KALUMBURU and KURI BAY in Western Australia has been
cancelled.

At 4:00 pm CST [2:30 pm WST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Timor Sea about
80 kilometres west of TROUGHTON ISLAND and 150 kilometres west northwest of
KALUMBURU. The low is moving west at 15 kilometres per hour.

The low is moving away, and is no longer expected to produce gales on the coast.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 4:00 pm CST [2:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 13.7 degrees South 125.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 90 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 15 km/h
. Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

No further cyclone advices will be issued unless the situation changes.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/