APCEDI ALERT ETW(S2) #1, 2005: Weather Alert for East Timor

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring a tropical depression that has a fair potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. This system is forecast to stay to the south of East Timor, but all interests in East Timor and adjacent Indonesian islands should monitor the system carefully as it develops in the Timor Sea.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABIO10 PGTW 120200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/120200Z-121800ZJAN2005//

(1) AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS MOVED OVER WATER NEAR 12.7S0 128.7E8, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE CIRCULATION TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.//


FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDDP0002.txt

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:11 am CST [9:41 am WST] Wednesday 12 January 2005

A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities between WYNDHAM and KURI BAY in Western Australia.

At 10:00 am CST [08:30 am WST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf about 170 kilometres northwest of PORT KEATS and 250 kilometres northeast of KALUMBURU. The low is moving northwest at 8 kilometres per hour but is expected to turn westwards later.

There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours. However GALES may develop later on Thursday.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 10:00 am CST [08:30 am WST]:
. Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 128.5 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 8 km/h
. Central pressure......... 1003 hectoPascals

People between WYNDHAM and KURI BAY in Western Australia should listen for the next advice which will be issued at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST]

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/