APCEDI ALERT BOBW #1, 2005: Weather Alert for Bay of Bengal

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring a tropical depression between Sumatra and Sri Lanka that has a fair potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Associated convection with this system is bring rain showers to the Nicobar Islands and the islands off the northwest Aceh coast. All interests around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABIO10 PGTW 120200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/120200Z-121800ZJAN2005//

(1) 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.4N7, 89.2E9, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N6 89.5E2, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED WESTERLIES EQUATORWARD OF AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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