APCEDI ALERT ETW(S2) #3, 2005: Weather Alert for East Timor

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to monitor a tropical depression that has a fair potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. This system is located to the southwest of Timor Island and is forecast to continue to move west away from the region, but all interests in East Timor and adjacent Indonesian islands should still continue monitor the system carefully.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN /131800Z-141800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACTMETOCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6, 123.5E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S2 123.5E1, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER WATER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.//

FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW10800.shtml

IDW10800
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:01pm WST on Friday the 14th of January 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

Tropical Low off north Kimberley coast
Location at noon :near 13.3S 123.0E
about 525 kilometres [280 nautical miles] north of Broome
Central Pressure : 1002hPa
Recent movement : west at 10 kilometres per hour [6 knots]

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Saturday : Moderate
Sunday : High
Monday : High

REMARKS - The low is expected to continue moving westwards in the next few days and not affect the WA coastline. It is still possible that the low will develop further in the next few days.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/