APCEDI ALERT BOBW Cyclone 02B #6, 2005: Cyclone 02B Slowly moves toward Sri Lanka

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to issue alerts for Cyclone 02B, located 500 km east-southest of Hambantota. Cyclone 02B is currently moving west at 2 kt with a general forecast trend slowly to the northwest. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology continues to issue advisories on this system as it develops. Associated convection with this system continues to bring intermittent showers to Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota Districts, and these are forecast to become more widespread and heavy in the next 24 hours over the East, Uva, North Northcentral and South Provinces .

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Galle and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is an increasingly serious situation that must be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 5.1N6 86.3E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATOR. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WEAK INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK POLEWARD AND THE OUTFLOW IMPROVES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2, 152100Z9, 160300Z0 AND 160900Z6.//


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

15 January 2005
The cyclonic storm in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists. It was centred about 550 kms to the southeast of Pottuvil coast at 1500 hours today (15th). This system is being monitored very closely and arrangements have been made to disseminate warnings and information to the public when required. Under the influence of this system, showers accompanied by fairly strong winds at times are expected in the Northern, Northcentral, Uva and Eastern provinces and in Hambantota, Nuwaraeliya and Matale districts. Shipping and fishing communities are hereby advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Hambantota via Pottuvil as the seas may be rough at times. General public is also requested to refrain from going to sea particularly to the deep seas off eastern and southeastern coast of the island and watch for latest weather advisories from the Meteorological Department.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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