APCEDI ALERT BOBW Cyclone 02B #7, 2005: Cyclone 02B Slowly moves toward Sri Lanka; Watch raised for Andaman Islands

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to issue alerts for Cyclone 02B, located 500 km east-southeast of Pottuvil. Cyclone 02B is currently moving west-south west at 2 kt with a general forecast trend slowly to the north and then northeast. The Sri Lanka and Indian Departments of Meteorology continues to issue advisories on this system as it develops. Associated convection with this system continues to bring intermittent showers to Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota Districts, and these are forecast to become more widespread and heavy in the next 24 hours over the East, Uva, North Northcentral and South Provinces. The intensity of rain and wind for Sri Lanka will depend on how close the cyclone comes toward the east coast before turning northeast toward the Andaman Islands and Burma.

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Galle and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is an increasingly serious situation that must be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

Given the northeastern turn that is forecast in the next 2-3 days, all interests in the Andaman Islands of India from Little Andaman northward should pay close attention to this storm. All interests in the Coco Islands and Irrawaddy Delta of Burma should also be on alert.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 4.2N6 86.2E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CYCLING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATOR. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD AFTER 12 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK POLEWARD AND THE OUTFLOW IMPROVES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3, 162100Z0, 170300Z1 AND 170900Z7.//

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dynamic/severe.htm

CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY NO. NINE BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 16 JANUARY 2005. THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH INDIAN OCEAN, REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 160600 UTC NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 DEG. NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.5 DEG. EAST. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. CURRENT INTENSITY T2.5 REPEAT T2.5. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 hPa. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND 35 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. FORECAST : THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SEA CONDITION WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF SYSTEM CENTRE LIKELY TO BE VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. FORECAST INTENSITY T 3.0 AT 170600 UTC.


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

15 January 2005
The cyclonic storm in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists. It was centred about 550 kms to the southeast of Pottuvil coast at 1500 hours today (15th). This system is being monitored very closely and arrangements have been made to disseminate warnings and information to the public when required. Under the influence of this system, showers accompanied by fairly strong winds at times are expected in the Northern, Northcentral, Uva and Eastern provinces and in Hambantota, Nuwaraeliya and Matale districts. Shipping and fishing communities are hereby advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Hambantota via Pottuvil as the seas may be rough at times. General public is also requested to refrain from going to sea particularly to the deep seas off eastern and southeastern coast of the island and watch for latest weather advisories from the Meteorological Department.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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