APCEDI ALERT 06F #2, 2005: Tropical Depression 06F Passes Across Fiji Toward Tonga

Tropical Depression 06F, has picked up speed as it has traversed across Fiji overnight. It is now located about 111 kms south of Ogea Island, Fiji. The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a strong wind warning for Vanua Levu, Taveuni and Lau
Group, but has dropped the warning for all other parts of Fiji. They have also been dropped for Wallis and Futuna. Strong Wind Warnings have now been raised for all of Tonga. Rough seas, gales and heavy rainfalls with possible localised flooding of low-lying areas are being forecast for Vanua Levu, Taveuni and Lau Group in Fiji and for all groups in Tonga. However, formation into a cyclone at this time is not likely.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Jan 30/2329 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [993HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 178.7W AT 302100UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/VIS, MICROWAVE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29-30C.

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION REMAINS DETACHED FROM CENTRE AND IN ACTIVE ABOUT THE EAST AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. GOOD CURVATURE REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HOWEVER IT REMAINS ASYMMETRIC. WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A 250 HPA RIDGE AND JUST EAST OF A TROUGH. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE 06F SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR 06F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND LAU GROUP.

SITUATION:
A tropical depression was located about 556 kilometres to the southeast of Nadi or 111 kilometres to the south of Ogea at 2 p.m this afternoon. The depression is moving further southeastwards away from the group. Associated rain and strong winds affect most parts of the country.

Forecast to midnight tomorrow for the Fiji group: Frequent rain, heavy at times with squally thunderstorms about Vanua Levu, Taveuni and Lau group. Flooding of low lying areas likely in heavy falls. Elsewhere, cloudy periods with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Northwest to northeast winds 45 to 55 kilometres per hour with gusts to 75 kilometres per hour in squalls over Vanua Levu, Taveuni and Lau group. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh south to southwest winds. Rough to very rough seas.

TONGA
Weather Bulletin issued from NWFC Nadi Jan 310118 UTC.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF TONGA.

Situation:
A tropical depression located this morning about 300 miles [ 560 km ] west of Vavau is moving southeast at 15 knots. Associated rain affect the kingdom.

Forecast to midnight tomorrow for Tonga: Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots gusting to 35 knots in squalls about the Niuas. Elsewhere, northerly winds up to 30 knots and gusting to 45 knots in squalls. Periods of rain, heavy at times and isolated squally thunderstorms.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/