APCEDI ALERT BOBW Cyclone 02B #9, 2005: Cyclone 02B Weakens into Tropical Depression

Cyclone 02B has weakened into a tropical depression today. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Indian Departments of Meteorology have forecast the storm to dissipate east of Sri Lanka by tomorrow, and both agencies have thus issued final warnings on this system. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology will monitor the depression and continue to give reports as the remnants of the cyclone continue to pass near the Sri Lankan shore. Even though Cyclone 02B has weakened into a tropical depression, the remnants of the system still have some potential to bring localised heavy rains, gusty winds, isolated coastal and flash flooding and rough seas to places close to the main convection areas. Thus people should remain alert.

Currently, the main areas of convection of this system lie well off the Sri Lanka coast although associated convection continues to bring intermittent showers to Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota Districts, and these could become more widespread and heavy in the next 24 hours over the East, Uva and South Provinces depending on the depression's track. The intensity of rain and wind for Sri Lanka will depend on how close the depression comes toward the east coast before turning northeast toward the Andaman Islands and Burma.

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Galle and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This situation should still be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should monitor forecasts and be prepared to help organise preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

All interests in the Andaman Islands of India from Little Andaman northward and in the Coco Islands and Irrawaddy Delta of Burma should pay close attention to this depression and associated convection.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 4.7N1 85.1E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TC 02B IS FORECAST REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SLOWLY TRACK EQUATORWARD FOR THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING TO A POLEWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 08 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//


INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dynamic/severe.htm

CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY NO. SIXTEEN BASED ON 0000 UTC CHARTS OF 17 JANUARY 2005. THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH INDIAN OCEAN, REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 170000 UTC NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 DEG. NORTH LONGITUDE 86.0 DEG. EAST. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. CURRENT INTENSITY T 2.0 REPEAT T 2.0 ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. FORECAST : THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM.


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

17 January 2005
The depression has further weakened. Showers will occur at several places in the Eastern and Uva provinces and in the Hambantota District. Showers and thunderstorms will be experienced in the sea areas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Hambantota via Pottuvil. Winds will be Northerly to Northeasterly and the speed will be 15-25 kph. The speed will occasionally rise to 30-40 kph in the sea areas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Hambantota via Pottuvil. Seas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Hambantota via Pottuvil will be fairly rough.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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