APCEDI ALERT 06F #1, 2005: Tropical Depression Forms North of Fiji

Tropical Depression 06F, located about 200 kms north of Nadi Fiji has recently formed and continues to deepen. The Fiji Meteorological Service has issued a strong wind warning for all Fiji waters. Rough seas and heavy rainfalls with possible flooding are being forecast for Northern parts of Fiji including Rotuma and for the French Territory of Wallis and Futuna. However, formation into a cyclone at this time is not likely.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Jan 30/0946 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 178.4E AT 300600UTC MOVING EAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/IR, MICROWAVE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29-30C.

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH GOOD CURVATURE EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HOWEVER IT REMAINS ASYMMETRIC. WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A 250 HPA OUTFLOW SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. GLOBALMODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE 06F SLOWLY EASTWARDS AND LATER SOUTHWARDS WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR 06F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

SITUATION:
A tropical depression located this afternoon about 220 kilometres to the north of Nadi is moving slowly eastwards towards the north of the group. Associated cloud and rain affect the country.

Forecast to midnight MONDAY for the Fiji group: Rain, heavy at times with isolated squally thunderstorms, more frequent in northern parts of the group. Flooding of low lying areas likely in heavy falls. Light to moderate north to northeast winds gradually increasing during tomorrow to 45 kilometres per hour with gusts to 55 kilometres per hour in squalls. Winds turning fresh to strong north to northwest late on Monday. Seas becoming rough tomorrow.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 16.2S9 177.5E0, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ENHANCED BY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 998.3 MB BASED ON A 300340Z0 SURFACE OBSERVATION TAKEN AT THE YASAWA ISLAND GROUP. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/