APCEDI ALERT 07F #1, 2005: Tropical Cyclone Meena Forms East of Samoa, Cyclone Alert for Cook Islands

Tropical Depression 07F formed yesterday and has rapidly strengthened into Tropical Cyclone Meena today about 300-350 kms East of Pago Pago in American Samoa. It is currently slow moving. It is likely to continue to strengthen and gradually move southeast toward the Southern Cooks. The Fiji Meteorological Service has raised a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the Northern Cooks and an advisory for the Southern Cooks as outlined below. All interests in the Cook Islands should now monitor this storm closely and make all necessary preparations as it has a history of rapid intensification and may continue to do so. Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 03/0832 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [995hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 168.2W AT 030600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTSOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND THE CENTRE HAS SLIPPED UNDER THE CDO. MEENA IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW. OUTFLOW HAS BECOME GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENT SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. DVORAK ANALYSIS AT T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATER.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 15.0S 167.0W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 15.5S 165.5W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 16.5S 164.7W MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 18.0S 163.2W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 031430 UTC.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 03/0840 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN COOKS

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [995hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 168.2W AT 030600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTSOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS INTENSIFYING. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING BUT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COOKS LATER TOMORROW.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE DEPRESSION MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW: NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TOMORROW. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TOMORROW. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY TOMORROW. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. MODERATE SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 031200UTC or earlier.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/