APCEDI ALERT 07F #2, 2005: Tropical Cyclone Meena Threatens Cook Islands

Tropical Cyclone Meena continued to strengthen overnight and this morning but at a much slower rate. It is slowly drifting east. It is forecast to slowly strengthen and turn southeast toward the Southern Cook Islands. The current track of the storm will bring it very close to the Northern Cook Island of Suwarrow. This is a small atoll renown for its birdlife with a transient population of less than 10 persons. If any persons are currently on Suwarrow, they should take immediate preparedness actions in line for a level-1 Cyclone. The Fiji Meteorological Service continues to maintain a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the Northern Cooks and an advisory for the Southern Cooks as outlined below. All interests in the Cook Islands should continue monitor this storm closely and make all necessary preparations as it approaches. Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 03/2019 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [985hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 167.3W AT 031800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

AREAL COVERAGE OF COLD TOPS HAS DIMINSHED AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MEENA HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT IN THE LAST SIX HOURS, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF DIURNAL CHANGES. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE MET A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT MEENA AND THE INCREASED CVA IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN OR EVEN INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EAST OF AN UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW AND REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES DT=3.0, MET=3.0 AND PT=3.5. FINAL T BASED ON PT: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATER.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 15.1S 166.4W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 16.3S 165.1W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 17.5S 164.1W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 19.0S 163.2W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 040230 UTC.


FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 03/2025 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN COOKS

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [985hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 167.3W AT 031800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS INTENSIFYING. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY EAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COOKS LATER TODAY.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE COULD BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER SUWARROW IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

SUWARROW: NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS LATER TODAY. FREQUENT RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS, BECOMING VERY ROUGH LATER TODAY. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING LIKLEY OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY LATER TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. MODERATE SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 040230UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/