APCEDI ALERT 07F #3, 2005: Tropical Cyclone Meena Bears Down on Cook Islands

Tropical Cyclone Meena again increased strength quickly today and is now approaching a Category 1 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is slowly drifting east. It is forecast to slowly strengthen and turn southeast toward the Southern Cook Islands. The current track of the storm will bring it just southwest of the Northern Cook Island of Suwarrow overnight. Suwarrow is a small atoll renown for its birdlife with a transient population of less than 10 persons. If any persons are currently on Suwarrow, they should take immediate preparedness actions in line for a Category-1 Cyclone.

The Fiji Meteorological Service has now raised a Gale Warning for Suwarrow Islands and a Strong Wind Warning for the rest of the Northern Cook Islands. Advisories are continued for the Southern Cooks as outlined below. On its current forecast track, the quickly intensifying storm could pass near or over Roratonga or other major islands of the Southern Cooks. With the storm strengthening quickly, this is an increasingly dangerous situation for Roratonga and the Southern Cooks. All interests in the Cook Islands especially the Southern Cooks should monitor local media about the storm and be ready to initiate preparedness activities in line with a Category 1-2 Cyclone. All local disasters authorities should be on standby ready to initiate disaster preparedness plans as soon as called upon by Government officials.

Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 04/0159 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [980hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 167.5W AT 040000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN EXPOSED LLCC JUST EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT IN THE LAST 6 HOURS THE CENTRE HAS SLIPPED UNDER THE CDO, IMPLYING A DECREASE IN ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THE CDO IS REJUVENATING AND CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AGAIN AFTER A MORNING MINIMUM, SUGGESTING DIURNAL INFLUENCES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED CVA ABOUT MEENA IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EAST OF AN UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW AND REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN GIVES DT=3.0, MET=3.5 AND PT=3.5. FINAL T BASED ON MET: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW EASTSOUTHEAST MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FROM TOMORROW.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 15.3S 165.9W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 16.7S 164.4W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 18.0S 163.3W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 19.9S 162.2W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE


FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 04/0217 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [980hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 167.5W AT 040000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW TONIGHT AND ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAIN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

FOR SUWARROW: NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS, REACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS TONIGHT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING LIKELY OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS: EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS ABOUT NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES TONIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 040600UTC OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/