APCEDI ALERT 07F #4, 2005: Tropical Cyclone Meena Bears Down on Cook Islands

Tropical Cyclone Meena continues to strengthen and is close to being a minimal Category 1 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It continues to drift slowly east. It is forecast to continue strengthening and turn southeast toward the Southern Cook Islands. The current track of the storm will bring it southwest of the Northern Cook Island of Suwarrow overnight. Suwarrow is a small atoll renown for its birdlife with a transient population of less than 10 persons. If any persons are currently on Suwarrow, they should take immediate preparedness actions in line for a Category-1 Cyclone.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Gale Warning for Suwarrow Island and a Strong Wind Warning for the rest of the Northern Cook Islands. Advisories are continued for the Southern Cooks as outlined below. On its current forecast track, the intensifying storm could pass near or over Rarotonga or other major islands of the Southern Cooks in 2-3 days time. With the storm strengthening, this is an increasingly dangerous situation for Rarotonga and the Southern Cooks. All interests in the Cook Islands especially the Southern Cooks should monitor local media about the storm and be ready to initiate preparedness activities in line with a borderline Category 1-2 Cyclone. All local disasters authorities should be on standby ready to initiate disaster preparedness plans as soon as called upon by Government officials.

Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 04/0838 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [975hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 166.9W AT 040600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 VIS AND IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS INTENSIFYING. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED 200 MILES TO THE WESTSOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW TONIGHT AND 180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW EARLY TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAIN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

FOR SUWARROW: NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING LIKELY OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS: EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS ABOUT NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES EARLY TOMORROW. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 041200UTC OR EARLIER.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/