APCEDI ALERT 07F #11, 2005: Category 4 Super-Cyclone Meena Gives a Glancing Hit to Rarotonga

Cyclone Meena seems to have peaked in intensity this morning as a strong Category 4 storm, with the eye about 30 miles (50 kms) east of Rarotonga. Rarotonga now lies in the outer edge of the western eyewall. To have the storm pass to the east and not make a direct hit is certainly a silver lining for the island as it means as the greatest potential for damage is likely to have stayed just offshore to the east. However, moderate to heavy localised damage is still possible. So people should stay on guard, and with such rough seas, coastal areas are still very vulnerable. Given that Meena has picked up forward speed and is now travelling at 20 kts to the southeast, it will not linger and should quickly move away in the 12-24 hours.

Situation on Rarotonga: So far the main reports of damage on Roratonga have been confined to trees and powerlines down and debris from the sea blocking the main coastal road in several places. No injuries or major damage to main buildings or structures have been reported at this time.

Eight evacuation shelters were set up around the island yesterday and many low-lying areas have been evacuated. The Hurricane Centre reports about 148 people currently in shelters.

The Rarotonga Hurricane Centre and Air New Zealand have confirmed that the Air New Zealand flight that was coming yesterday evening had to turn back and about 200 passengers due to leave were not picked up. The Government has moved most of them to one of the Evacuation Shelters, so they are all being well cared for. There was a report this morning from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation quoting a New Zealand Foreign Ministry spokesman stating that the plane was able to land and retrieve passengers, but this is being strongly denied by the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre and Air New Zealand. APCEDI has alerted the ABC to this error and asked for the report to be corrected.

The Centre is reporting intermittent torrential rains with increasing winds up to 60-70 knots.

Situation on Mangaia After the storm hits Rarotonga, it will pass to the west of Mangaia. 3 Shelters have been opened and about 90 people are now being put up through the storm. The island administration has evacuated low lying coastal areas. No damage has been reported but the local Hurricane Centre is reporting heavy rain, strong winds to about 40-50 knots and very rough seas. There are about 650-700 residents on Mangaia.

Situation on Aitutake: Fortunately for the low-lying Aitutake Atoll, the eye of the storm passed 161 kms to the west of the atoll. This means that the atoll did not get the full force of the storm. APCEDI spoke with Sergeant Putu of the Aitutake Hurricane Centre at 9:00 PM AST (Sydney time) yesterday, and he reported winds of 40-50 knots gusting higher with heavy rain. At least 3 trees have fallen across the road, but have been removed by the bulldozer. 4 families have moved into 2 evacuation shelters. Otherwise the island is fairing well. There are about 2000 residents on Aitutake.

Situation on Palmerston: The Palmerston Hurricane Centre continues to report to the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre to report that damage has been limited to some coconut trees and small huts blown down, but otherwise no major damage. There are about 50 residents on Palmerston.

Category 4 Saffir-Simpson Scale..
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

The best visible satellite photo can be found at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service during daylight hours.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-SEVEN for Southern Cooks ON TC MEENA
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 06/1813 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, AITUTAKI, MANUAE,
MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [915hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 159.2W OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 95 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 061730 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 115 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS WEAKENING. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 58 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 55 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 062100 UTC AND 58 MILES OF MANGAIA AT 070300 UTC. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 115 KNOTS OR MORE WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 155 KNOTS . FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ESTIMATED AT 50 FEET OR 15 METRES.

FOR RAROTONGA, AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS EASING. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS STILL EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ESTIMATED AT 30 FEET OR 9 METRES.

FOR PALMERSTON: STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. SOME SHOWERS. SEAS VERY ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 062130UTC OR EARLIER.
NNNN

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/