APCEDI ALERT 07F #8, 2005:Cyclone Meena Strengthening to Super-Cyclone; Threatens Widescale Damage to Southern Cooks

Tropical Cyclone Meena has strengthened dramatically overnight. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is now saying that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 115 knots making it a Category 4 Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.. The JWTC is now forecasting that the storm will pass over Rarotonga as a Category 5 Super-Cyclone.

The Southern Cook Islands must now be prepared for a Super-Cyclone of at least Category 4 and possibly Category 5. This is a CRITICALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION, and all disaster preparedness activities in line with a severe Super-Cyclone must now be rushed to completion on Aitutaki and Rarotonga and the islands to the south. In areas like Palmerston Atoll where the cyclone is present, these activities should be maintained until the storm has passed. See specific information for each island below. Meena's now well-defined eye is currently about 100 km NE of Palmerston Atoll. Fortunately the storm will pass far enough to the east of Palmerston so that damage will be limited and thus, the warning for Palmerston has been downgraded from a Hurricane Warning to a Gale Warning. Nonetheless residents of Palmerston (population about 50) should maintain preparedness activities until the storm passes in 12-24 hours.

A Hurricane Warning is in force for all the remaining Southern Cook Islands including the capital Rarotonga.

On its current forecast track and rate of strengthening, the Cyclone will will pass just west of Aitutake this afternoon and evening as a strong Category 4 storm. It will then make a beeline for Rarotonga later tonight and tomorrow as a possible Category 5 Super-Cyclone Saffir-Simpson Scale. (see damage regimes outlined below). All interests in the Cook Islands especially the Southern Cooks should continue to monitor local media about the storm and rush preparedness activities in line with a Category 4-5 Super Cyclone to completion. All local disasters authorities in the Southern Cooks should now be undertaking disaster preparedness plans in line with a major Super-Cyclone and rushing them to completion. Again to repeat that this is a CRITICALLY DANGEROUS SIUTATION FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS AND THE CAPITAL RAROTONGA.

Category 4 Saffir-Simpson Scale..
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

Category 5 Saffir-Simpson Scale..
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 knots or 249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.

Interests in Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

The best visible satellite photo can be found at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

issued from RSMC NADI Feb 05/1835 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR ALL ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN COOKS EXCEPT PALMERSTON.
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [950hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 162.3W AT 051700 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 90 KNOTS
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COOKS. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF PALMERSTON ISLAND AT 060200UTC AND ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF AITUTAKI AT 060800UTC.

FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER, POSSIBLY REACHING 65 KNOTS GUSTING 80 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY LATER TODAY. SEAS ROUGH RISING HIGH TO VERY HIGH LATER TODAY. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS LIKELY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

FOR RAROTONGA: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER DURING THE EVENING, POSSIBLY REACHING 65 KNOTS GUSTING 80 KNOTS TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY LATER TODAY. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH TODAY, THEN RISING HIGH TO VERY HIGH TONIGHT. HEAVY SWELL DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS LIKELY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

FOR MANGAIA, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, STRENGTHENING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER TONIGHT, POSSIBLY REACHING 65 KNOTS GUSTING 80 KNOTS WINDS EARLY TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH TODAY, RISING HIGH TO VERY HIGH TONIGHT. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

FOR PALMERSTON: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE ISLAND. WINDS TURNING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY EASING TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS RISING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH DURING THE DAY. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER COASTALAREAS LATER TODAY.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 052130UTC OR EARLIER.
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Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 05/1844 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [950hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 162.3W AT 051700 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SUWARROW AT 051700UTC AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLAND TODAY. ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAIN BANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.

FOR THE NORTHERN COOKS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS ABOUT SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 052345UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/