APCEDI ALERT 07F #7, 2005:Strengthening Cyclone Meena: Hurricane and Storm Warnings Issued for Southern Cooks

The Fiji Meteorological Service has now raised a Hurricane Warning for Palmerston Atoll, a Storm Warning for Aitutaki and nearby smaller Islands and a Storm Warning for Rarotonga. All disaster preparations on Palmerston Atoll should be rushed to completion. Palmerston Atoll has a population of about 50 persons. All disaster preparations should now be put in place in Aitutake and rushed to completion. Aitutake has a population of about 2,000 persons. Persons in Rarotonga should work throughout the morning hours to rush disaster preparations to completion by midday. Rarotonga has approximately 10,000 people on the island.

Tropical Cyclone Meena continues to strengthen and is now a borderline Category 1-2 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It will likely become a strong Category 2 Storm tomorrow at its forecast rate of strengthening. It continues moving southeast at 10 knots. It is forecast to continue slowly strengthening as it heads toward the Southern Cook Islands. Meena is currently about 120 miles south of the Northern Cook Island of Suwarrow. If any persons are currently on Suwarrow, they should maintain preparedness actions in line for a Category-1 Cyclone for the next 12-24 hours. The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Gale Warning for Suwarrow Island and a Strong Wind Warning for the rest of the Northern Cook Islands as outlined below.

On its current forecast track and rate of strengthening, the intensifying storm will pass just east of Palmerston Atoll this morning and tomorrow as a strong Category 2 storm. It will then pass by Aitutaki and Rarotonga later today and tomorrow as a major Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This is now a very dangerous situation for Palmerston Atoll, Aitutaki and Rarotonga and other the Southern Cook Islands. All interests in the Cook Islands especially the Southern Cooks should continue to monitor local media about the storm and rush preparedness activities in line with a Category 3 Cyclone to completion. All local disasters authorities in the Southern Cooks should now be undertaking disaster preparedness plans in line with a major cyclone and rushing them to completion.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale indicates the following damage regime: Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

FOR SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 05/1243 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [960hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 162.9W AT 051200 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 80 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COOKS. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
PALMERSTON ISLAND AT 060000UTC AND ABOUT 90 MILES WEST OF AITUTAKI AT 060600UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND POSSIBLY REACHING 65 KNOTS GUSTING 80 KNOTS LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY AND FREQUENT. SEAS VERY ROUGH, RISING HIGH TO VERY HIGH LATER TODAY. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING LIKELY OVER COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS TURNING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENING FURTHER, POSSIBLY REACHING 40 TO 50 KNOTS GUSTING 60 KNOTS THIS EVENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY LATER TODAY. SEAS ROUGH RISING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH LATER TODAY. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS LIKELY TONIGHT.

FOR RAROTONGA:EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS THIS EVENING. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND POSSIBLY REACHING 40 TO 50 KNOTS GUSTING 60 KNOTS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER LATER TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FREQUENT FROM TONIGHT. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH, RISING TO HIGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HEAVY SWELL DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS LIKELY LATER TOMORROW.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER DURING TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH AND HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060330UTC OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/