APCEDI ALERT 07F #9, 2005:Cyclone Meena Strengthening to Super-Cyclone; Takes Aim on Rarotonga

Cyclone Meena continues to strengthen and is now passing about 90 miles (145 kms) eastnortheast of Palmerston Atoll (population est. 50). It will next approach and pass about 100 miles (161 kms) west of Aitutake (population est. 2000) later tonight. The forecast is then calling for the storm to pass very near or over Rarotonga as Category 4-5 Super-Cyclone with the capacity of causing severe damage to the capital late tonight and tomorrow. This is now a CRITICALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION for Rarotonga and Mangaia, and all disaster preparedness activities in line with a severe Super-Cyclone must now be rushed to completion on these islands.

Situation on Palmerston: The Palmerston Hurricane Center has recently called into the Rarotonga Hurricane Center to alert them that damage has been limited to some coconut trees and small huts blown down, but otherwise no major damage. As the storm will now be moving away, it is likely that they will escape any major damage.

Situation on Aitutake: Fortunately for the low-lying Aitutake Atoll, the eye of the storm is passing well to the west of the atoll. While this means that the atoll will not get the full force of the storm, it could still receive winds capable of light to locally moderate damage. APCEDI spoke with Sergeant Putu of the Aitutake Hurricane Centre at 1:00 PM AST (Sydney time), and he reported that Aitutake was prepared for the storm, that all preparedness activities had been completed and the radio was advising people on the situation as well as which hurricane shelters to go to if required later tonight. All schools, resorts and homes had boarded up and taken relevant precautions. He reports that the mayor's office and police force will be on alert all night and will call for evacuations to area shelters if necessary. The weather conditions were light rain, periodically heavier and light winds to 5 knots. APCEDI will continue to report from Aitutake.

Situation on Rarotonga: Unfortunately for the capital island, Cyclone Meena is making a bee-line for it and is getting stronger in every report both by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the Fiji Meteorological Service. The Government set up the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre this morning to coordinate preparedness activities in the capital and with other islands. Some low-lying areas have been evacuated and shelters set up. The Centre will be open all night and will be the focal point of all cyclone activities.

There is some divergence in the models as whether it will hit Rarotonga as a Category 4 or Category 5 Cyclone, but in either case, maximum precautions should be taken to ensure lives and property. It is a case of hope for the best, but expect the worst. Meena has persistently demonstrated episodes of rapid intensification, and conditions are overall favourable for development. This situation has many similarities to last year's situation with Cyclone Heta and Niue. The authorities are well-preparing the island and most preparations have been completed, but some people APCEDI has spoken with at the resorts in Rarotonga are under the impression that this is not a major storm, and authorities should be impressing on the population that it a major storm and that they may receive a direct hit from this very destructive storm. The fact that Palmerston and Aitutake are likely to escape without major damage is only from the good fortune of not receiving a direct hit from Meena. Rarotonga may not be as fortunate as all current models are showing a near- direct or direct hit.

Category 4 Saffir-Simpson Scale..
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

Category 5 Saffir-Simpson Scale..
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 knots or 249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

The best visible satellite photo can be found at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-ONE for Southern Cooks ON TC MEENA
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 06/0036 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [925hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 162.2W AT 060000 UTC. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COOKS. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 105 MILES WEST OF AITUTAKI AT 060600UTC AND ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 95 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 061200UTC. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA: EXPECT WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 100 KNOTS OR MORE WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 145 KNOTS OR MORE FROM LATER TONIGHT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMINAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS : EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 70 TO 85 KNOTS FROM LATER TONIGHT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR PALMERSTON: DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060330UTC OR EARLIER.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/