APCEDI ALERT 07F #10, 2005:Cyclone Meena Strengthening to Category 4 Super-Cyclone; Takes Aim on Rarotonga

Cyclone Meena continues to slowly strengthen and is now passing about 100 miles (161 kms) west of Aitutake (population est. 2000). Updated forecasts are now calling for the storm to pass very near or over Rarotonga as Category 4 Super-Cyclone with the capacity of causing severe damage to the capital late tonight and tomorrow. This is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION for Rarotonga and Mangaia, and all disaster preparedness activities in line with a severe Super-Cyclone must now be rushed to completion on these islands.

Situation on Rarotonga: Unfortunately for the capital island, Cyclone Meena is making a bee-line for it and there is now pretty good agreement in the models from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the Fiji Meteorological Service that Meena will hit Rarotonga as a strong Category 4 storm. The Government set up the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre this morning to coordinate preparedness activities in the capital and with other islands. The Rarotonga Hurricane Centre will be open all night and will be the focal point of all cyclone activities. Eight evacuation shelters have been set up around the island and many low-lying areas have been evacuated. The evacuation centres have been filling up this afternoon and evening with families fleeing the storm whose centre will likely hit the island around 8:00 AM local time tomorrow (February 6th).

The Rarotonga Hurricane Centre has reported that the Air New Zealand flight that was coming this evening has had to turn around and so about 200 passengers due to leave have been stranded. The Government has moved most of them to one of the Evacuation Shelters, so they are all being well cared for.

According to the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre there are approximately 11,000 residents on Rarotonga plus several hundred tourists. The Centre is reporting intermittent heavy rains with increasing winds up to 20-30 knots.

Situation on Aitutake: Fortunately for the low-lying Aitutake Atoll, the eye of the storm is passing 161 kms to the west of the atoll. While this means that the atoll will not get the full force of the storm, it could still receive winds capable of light to locally moderate damage. APCEDI spoke with Sergeant Putu of the Aitutake Hurricane Centre at 9:00 PM AST (Sydney time), and he reported winds of 40-50 knots gusting higher with heavy rain. At least 3 trees have fallen across the road, but have been removed by the bulldozer. 4 families have moved into 2 evacuation shelters. Otherwise the island is fairing well. Residents should remain inside for the next 12-24 hours as the storm moves away. There are about 2000 residents on Aitutake.

Situation on Palmerston: The Palmerston Hurricane Center continues to report to the Rarotonga Hurricane Center to report that damage has been limited to some coconut trees and small huts blown down, but otherwise no major damage. As the storm will now be moving away, it is likely that they will escape any major damage. There are about 50 residents on Palmerston.

Situation on Mangaia After the storm hits Rarotonga, it will pass to the west of Mangaia. Preparations have been rushed to completion this evening. 3 Shelters have been opened and are filling up this evening. The island administration has evacuated low lying coastal areas. There are about 650-700 residents on Mangaia.

Category 4 Saffir-Simpson Scale..
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

The best visible satellite photo can be found at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service during daylight hours.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Southern Cooks ON TC MEENA
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 06/0625 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND
NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO,
TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [920hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 161.6W AT 060600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT AROUND 12 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO BE 110 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COOKS. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 90 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 061200UTC AND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 130 MILES WESTNORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 061800UTC. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA: EXPECT WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 110 KNOTS OR MORE WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 150 KNOTS OR MORE FROM LATER TONIGHT ABOUT RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA TOMORROW. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED AT 45 FEET OR 14 METRES.

FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 70 TO 85 KNOTS FROM LATER TONIGHT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED AT 35 FEET OR 10 METRES.

FOR PALMERSTON: DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED AT 25 FEET OR 7 METRES.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060930UTC OR EARLIER.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/