APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #5, 2005: Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf Threaten Wide Area of South Pacific

Overnight Tropical Depression 08F strengthened into Cyclone Olaf. Cyclone Olaf joins Cyclone Nancy in what is now a complex meteorological situation in the South Pacific which threatens a wide area. Current watches and warnings are as follows:

COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SAMOA:
GALE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS.

AMERICAN SAMOA: TUTUILA AND AUNUU:
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH IN EFFECT

AMERICAN SAMOA:MANU'A:
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH IN EFFECT

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy continues to slowly strengthen and is slowly moving to the southeast at 3 kt. It currently lies about 440 m east of Pago Pago, American Samoa and about 70m west of Suwarrow, Northern Cooks and 150m southsoutheast of PukaPuka, Northern Cooks. It is still at Tropical Storm strength but is forecast to reach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. in the next 36-48 hours as it approaches the Southern Cooks.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10140.txt

PART 1 : WARNING Storm Warning 044 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 13/1929 UTC 2005 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone NANCY centre [985 hPa] was located near 13 decimal 4 South 164 decimal 1 West at 131800 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 13.4S 164.1W at 131800 UTC. Cyclone moving towards the southeast at about 03 knots but expected to turn southwards. Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre increasing to 60 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the sector from north through east to south and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 14.3S 163.8W at 140600 UTC. and near 15.3S 163.3W at 141800 UTC.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

CYCLONE OLAF
CYCLONE OLAF is between Tuvalu and Tokelau about 550 miles northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa. It is slow moving and is forecast to strengthen somewhat more quickly than Cyclone Nancy. It is still at Tropical Storm strength but is forecast to be Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. in the next 24-48 hours when it is forecast to hit Samoa. After that it id forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 2 Cyclone.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10140.txt

Tropical Cyclone OLAF centre [990 hPa] was relocated near 9 decimal 4 South 178 decimal 0 West at 131800 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 9.4S 178.0W at 131800 UTC. Cyclone currently slow moving but expected to move towards the east then southeast, accelerating gradually. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to centre increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds above 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre in the northeast semicircle and within 60 nautical miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 9.5S 177.0W at 140600 UTC. and near 10.1S 175.6W at 141800 UTC.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

GENERAL ALERT: All Concerns and Authorities in Tuvalu, Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue, Cook Islands and French Polynesia should monitor these systems carefully. Authorities in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa and the Southern Cooks should start making preparations in line with the approach of a Category 1-2 Cyclone. Authorities in the Southern Cooks should also be cognizant that due to the recent damage by Cyclone Meena, they are more susceptible to heightened damage even from a smaller system especially in the immediate coastal area.

The presence of 2 cyclones in relatively close proximity to each other makes forecast modelling for either system more difficult. Both storms are approaching the size and proximity whereby the Fujiwhara Effect may come into play. Therefore, very close attention should be paid to both cyclones, and local authorities should be prepared for unexpected shifts in direction of either system.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org