APCEDI ALERT 09F #3, 2005: Cyclone Nancy Forms

Tropical Depression 09F has been upgraded by the Fiji Meteorological Service to Cyclone Nancy. Nancy is moving east at 5 knots toward the Northern Cooks. It is forecast to continue strengthening but should remain at Tropical Storm strength (less than Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) for the next 24-48 hours.

Gale Watches and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for Samoa and American Samoa. A High Surf Advisory is also in effect for Manu'a Waters and for south and southeast facing shores of Tutuila and Anuu Waters in American Samoa.

Tropical Depression 08F remains slowly moving between Tuvalu and Tokelau, and strong wind warnings have been raised for both Tuvalu and Tokelau. It also continues to slowly intensify.

Both the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Fiji Meteorological Service are currently tracking both systems. Models are somewhat mixed over the trends of these systems given the complex interaction between them.

Concerns in Samoa, American Samoa, Tokelau, Cook Islands, Niue, Tuvalu, Fiji and Wallis and Futuna should monitor the progress of both tropical systems 09F and 08F over the next 24-48 hours. Authorities in the Cook Islands should pay close attention as several main islands have already sustained damage from Cyclone Meena and are thus currently more vulnerable even to a small system.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 12/2017 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY 09F CENTRE [995hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 165.8W AT 121800 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

A SMALL CDO IS DEVELOPING OVER LLCC. MAIN BAND TO EAST DEVELOPING AND BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND IT. CONVECTIVE TOPS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION WRAPS 0.6 TO 0.7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MET AND PT AGREE AT 3.0. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE CAUGHT UNDER REGION OF WEAK STEERING, HOWEVER, CONSENSUS FORECASTS AN INITIAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TURN BEFORE TREKKING SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND FUTURE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC NEAR 13.4S 165.8W MOV S 3KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC NEAR 13.8S 166.5W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 14.5S 166.3W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 15.4S 165.6W MOV S 3KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130200 UTC.

FROM WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE, AMERICAN SAMOA
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/samoa/

NARRATIVE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND THE INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS

2 PM SST FRI FEB 11 2005

SHORT TERM

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F IS LOCATED IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST VICINITY OF TUTUILA AND MANUA THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF EMBEDDED CLOUDS LINKED TO T.D. 09F, AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERY BANDS AND CUMULONIMBUS MOVING ACROSS MANUA WATERS AT 1330 PM LOCAL TIME. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE DOWNPLAYING THE EXPOSURE OF T.D. 09F THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN WINDS AREEXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCAL CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN ISLANDS BY SUNDAY, WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED EFFECT OVER MANUA AS THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM LIES WITHIN 40 TO 60 MILES EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF MANUA. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. T.D. 09F WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF 5 TO 7 FEET BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM

OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... IMPACT OF STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING STORM FROM AN EARLIER PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE DELAYING THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM UNTIL TUESDAY DUE TO A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA. AS THE STORM INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN SIZE, A SURFACE RIDGE OBSCURING THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM WILL DISSIPATE. STORM GENERATED SWELLS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL GENERATE SURF OF 16 TO 24 FEET ALONG SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AREA OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WATCH AND SCA FOR AMERICAN SAMOA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AT 2 PM SST SATURDAY BY WSO PAGO PAGO OR SOONER IF CONDITION WARRANT.

CMB

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org