APCEDI ALERT 09F #1, 2005: Weather Advisory for American Samoa and Cook Islands

Tropical Depression 09F has formed in the same area in which Cyclone Meena formed earlier in the month, approximately 180 NM eastnortheast of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Both the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Fiji Meteorological Service are currently tracking the system. No special alerts have yet been issued as the depression is small and well away from any major islands. However, most models indicate a general strengthening trend in the next few days and a slow movement southward.

People in Samoa, American Samoa, Tokelau, Cook Islands and Niue should monitor the progress of the this system over the next 24-48 hours. Authorities in the Cook Islands should pay close attention as several main islands have already sustained damage from Cyclone Meena and are thus currently more vulnerable even to a small system.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 12/0157 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE [997hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 167.3W AT 120000 UTC MOVING EASTWARDS AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE LLCC IS SLIPPING UNDER THE CDO. SYSTEM ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BANDING TO THE EAST, WRAPPING 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. DVORAK ASSESSMENT DT =3.0, MET=PT=2.5 GIVING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. 09F REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS WEAKENING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED. OUTFLOW BECOMING GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS ENHANCED BY CROSS-EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW TO THE NORTH AND BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WESTERLY STEERING EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS 09F INTERACTS WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 13.7S 166.9W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 13.9S 167.1W MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 14.3S 167.3W SSW 05 WITH 45 KT CLOSE TOCENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 15.1S 167.1W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 09F WILL BE ISSUED AT 120830 UTC.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Situation:
A ridge of high pressure pushes from the south directing east to southeast winds over the Southern Cooks .
A tropical depression 09F [1000 hPa] remains slow moving to the far west of Suwarrow in the Northern Cooks. Associated cloud and rain affect the group.

Forecast to midnight tomorrow for the Southern Cooks:
Moderate east to southeast winds.
Fine apart from a few brief showers.
Moderate seas. Moderate to heavy southerly swells.
Further outlook: Brief showers.

For Rarotonga:
Fine apart from a few brief showers.
Further outlook: Brief showers.

For the Northern Cooks:
East to northeast winds, fresh and gusty in squalls. Scattered rain with isolated squally thunderstorms.
Moderate seas, rough in squalls. Moderate swells. Further outlook:Scattered showers south and west of Penrhyn.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/