APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #10, 2005: Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf Continue to Pose CRITICAL SITUATION FOR COOKS, SAMOA AND AMERICAN SAMOA

Super-Cyclone Olaf continues to bear down on Samoa and American Samoa and Cyclone Nancy continues to bear down on the Southern Cooks. Olaf is still intensifying, however, Nancy seems to have peaked as a Category 4 storm. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Southern Cooks. Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

SAMOA:
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS

AMERICAN SAMOA:
GALE WARNING EFFECTIVE TODAY
A STORM WATCH FOR ALL ISLANDS EFFECTIVE TONIGHT
A HURRICANE WATCH EFFECTIVE TUESDAY

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
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CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy has strengthened into a major Category 4 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Latest reports have noted that Nancy seems to have peaked in intensity. It is moving south southeast at 14 kt. It currently lies about 105 miles (167 km) northnorthwest of Aitutaki and 247 miles (400 km) north of Rarotonga.

APCEDI has been in touch with the Cyclone Centres on Aitutake and Rarotonga and can report the following:

Situation on Aitutake: All preparations have been completed. Tourists have been evacuated from resorts, and many have been taken to Rarotonga. Some tourists have decided to ride out the cyclone on Aitutake. Radio announcements have been going out all day for people to evacuate from low-lying and coastal areas. Two shelters are being opened, but no numbers yet on people there. The Cyclone Centre has all municipal workers on standby, ready to assist when storm hits.

Situation on Rarotonga: All preparations have been completed. Radio announcements have been going out all day across the Southern Cooks for people to evacuate from low-lying and coastal areas. Eight shelters are being opened, and people are beginning to come into the shelters. The Cyclone Centre is fully operational and monitoring the situation very closely.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks have now largely completed Cyclone Preparedness Measures in line for a major Category 4 Cyclone . Special attention should continue be taken along the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a another major cyclone, and there may be very little time between storms to recover or do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and increasingly very dangerous situation, but with the same careful planning shown during Cyclone Meena earlier this month, the Cooks can be ready.

The models continue to be divergent on which way Nancy will pass through the Cooks and how fast. Nancy has however finally started its long overdue southern turn. Continuation of this southern turn will likely bring the storm over or near Aitutake and Rarotonga both of which have had significant damage from Cyclone Meena. However, a more continued eastern component could bring the storm more over Manuae, Atiu, Mitiaro and Mauke. It is likely that the storm will be Category 3/4 during this time regardless of the ultimate direction. Palmerston Atoll (approximate population 50) to the northwest has had a fortuitous escape as the southern turn has come quite late leaving the storm well to the north and east of this low-lying atoll.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 15/0322 UTC 2005 UTC.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [940hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 159.6W OR ABOUT 105 MILES NORTH OF AITUTAKI AND ABOUT 247 MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 150300 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 14 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 67 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AITUTAKI OR 118 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 151500 UTC AND ABOUT 58 MILES WEST OF MAUKE OR ABOUT 61 MILES SOUTHHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 160300UTC.

FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 100 KNOTS GUSTING 145 KNOTS FROM THIS EVENING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA: WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 60 KNOTS GUSTING 85 KNOTS FROM TOMORROW MORNING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
SEAS BECOMING VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR PALMERSTON: SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS. SOME RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 150600UTC OR EARLIER.
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SUPER-CYCLONE OLAF
Super-Cyclone Olaf continues to make its southeast turn towards Samoa about 345 miles (555 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 261 miles (420 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. Olaf is moving eastsoutheast at 10 kt. Olaf is forecast to continue strengthening and maintain a southeast track toward Samoa and American Samoa. It is now a very strong Category 4 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone in 12-24 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over Samoa and America Samoa. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone.

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass very near or over Apia as a Category 4/5 Cyclone on Tuesday morning. All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be finalising all preparations activities consistent with a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. After striking Samoa and American Samoa, Olaf is currently forecast to move toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. This is a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Cooks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER EIGHTEEN (18) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 150530Z OR 2:30 THIS AFTERNOON. 14th FEBRUARY 2005.

…… HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ……

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS RELOCATED NEAR 10.5 SOUTH 175.5 WEST OR 227 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 142300Z OR 11:00 A.M THIS MORNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 12 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 170 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IF OLAF CONTINUES MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL RELOCATE TO ABOUT 12.7 SOUTH 173.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 150600Z OR 7:00 P.M TONIGHT. IT WILL RELOCATE TO ABOUT 14.2 SOUTH 171.9 WEST OR ABOUT 10 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF APIA AT 151700Z OR 6 A.M. TOMORROW MORNING. IF MOVEMENT IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE DELAYED TO ABOUT MIDDAY.

FOR SAMOA: NORTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECTS SAVAII FROM 7:00 PM TONIGHT INCREASING TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLIER AND EXPECTING TO TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASES TO 100 TO 120 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOMORROW.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTING TO AFFECTS UPOLU FROM 10:00 PM TONIGHT OR EARLIER AND EXPECTING TO TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASES TO 100 TO 120 MPH TOMORROW.

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOOD AT LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVERS FROM OVERFLOW. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING AND IT WILL AFFECTS LOW LYING NORTHERN FACE COASTAL AREA.

PUBLIC ARE ALSO ADVICE THAT POSSIBLE FLOODS FROM HEAVY FALLS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

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NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, and with the current southeastward trend, Olaf is now moving away from the islands. Very rough seas will remain for some time.

TUVALU, FIJI and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu, Fiji and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the systems cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Both Cyclones are now major storms capable of very destructive damage to any area that receives a direct or near direct hit,

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org