APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #7, 2005: Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf Intensify; Warnings Now Cover 7 Island Nations

Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf continue to intensify and have now caused watches and warnings to go up over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries and stretching from Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna in the west to Cook Islands in the East as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

SAMOA:
GALE WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

AMERICAN SAMOA: TUTUILA AND AUNUU:
GALE WARNING, HIGH SURF ADVISORY, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
STORM WATCH FOR MONDAY
HURRICANE WATCH FOR TUESDAY

AMERICAN SAMOA:MANU'A:
GALE WARNING, HIGH SURF ADVISORY, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
STORM WATCH FOR MONDAY
HURRICANE WATCH FOR TUESDAY

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
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CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy has strengthened more rapidly over the last 6 hours and is now approaching Category 2 status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is moving more rapidly to the eastsoutheast at 10 kt. It currently lies about 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Suwarrow, Northern Cooks and 235 miles (380 km) north of Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/0556 UTC 2005 UTC.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [965hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 163.5W OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW OR ABOUT 235 MILES NORTH OF PALMERSTON AT 140500 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTH. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 100 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY IS INTENSIFYING. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHNORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 215 MILES WESTNORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI AT 150000 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 65 KNOTS DEVELOPING TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY WITH FREQUENT SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. ROUGH SEAS RISING TO VERY ROUGH TOMORROW. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 35 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS LATER TOMORROW. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN BECOMING HEAVY WITH SCATTERED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140900UTC OR EARLIER.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks should be now be undertaking Cyclone Preparedness Measures in line for a Category 3 Cyclone. As the Cyclone is picking up speed all preparedness measures should now be rushed to completion on Palmerston and should be completed by early tomorrow in Aitutaki, Rarotonga and the other islands. Special attention should be taken along the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a larger Category 2/3 storm, and there may be very little time between storms to do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and increasingly dangerous situation, but with the same careful planning shown during Cyclone Meena earlier this month, the Cooks can be ready.

The models are divergent on which way Nancy will pass through the Cooks and how fast. Some show a more easterly trend and some a more southerly. How each island or atoll fairs will depend on the timing of the forecasted southerly turn. In any case, Palmerston Atoll (approximate population 50) will be the first area to experience hurricane-force winds. On the current forecast track these winds should be at a Category 1 level. However, should the southerly turn come in the next few hours, a more direct hit could occur causing winds to be at Category 2/3 levels. However, a quick turn to the south now would lessen the chances of a direct hit on Aitutake, Rarotonga and the other groups to the southeast. Hopefully, Nancy will continue to pick up forward speed and pass quickly out of the area, before Cyclone Olaf heads down more slowly. This would give areas of the Souhern Cooks affected by Cyclone Nancy 24-36 hours to recover before Olaf's onslaught.

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CYCLONE OLAF
Cyclone Olaf continues to be slow moving between Tuvalu and Tokelau is about 550 miles (885 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 460 miles (740 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. It is forecast to continue strengthening and turn southeast. It is now a Category 1 cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 2/3 in 24-48 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over Samoa and America Samoa. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 3 Cyclone.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER THIRTEEN (13) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 140500Z OR 6:00 P.M. 13th FEBRUARY 2005.

…..A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAMOA………

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS RELOCATED NEAR 9.3 SOUTH 177.9 WEST OR 400 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 140030Z OR 1:30 P.M THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS AND MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AND EXPECTING TO INCREASE TO 15 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IF OLAF CONTINUE MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL LOCATE ABOUT 10.1 SOUTH 175.6WEST OR ABOUT 270 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 141800Z OR 7:AM TOMORROW MORNING.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 80 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SUSTAIN WINDS OF ABOVE 40 MPH WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH OR STRONGER ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECTS NORTHWEST OF SAVAII WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 36 HOURS, AND THE REST OF SAMOA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. FREQUENT RAIN WITH VERY FALLS AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING TOMORROW

FORECAST TRACK:

IF TC OLAF STAYS ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK IT WILL LOCATE:

ABOUT 67 MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU OR 114 NORTHWEST OF APIA AT 1:00 AM TOMORROW NIGHT.

ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF APIA OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF AVAO AT 7:00 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUE AT 12:00 A.M TONIGHT

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass very near or right over Apia as a Category 3 Cyclone on Tuesday morning. All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be readying preparations consistent with a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Olaf has the potential for more rapid growth and this should also be watched closely. After striking Samoa and American Samoa, Olaf is currently forecast to move toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 3 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month.

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NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, but should Olaf's southerly turn come later than forecast, some of the southern groups could be directly affected.

TUVALU, FIJI and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu, Fiji and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the system cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Although both storms are still small, there is significant potential for damage over a wide area for islands in their path, if they strengthen significantly over the next 24-48 hours.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org