APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #9, 2005: Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf Still Intensifying;CRITICAL SITUATION FOR COOKS, SAMOA AND AMERICAN SAMOA

Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf continue to intensify. Nancy is bearing down on the Southern Cooks and Olaf is bearing down on Samoa and American Samoa. Olaf could reach Category 5 Super Cyclone status by the time it hits Samoa and American Samoa, and Nancy is forecast to be a strong Category 4 when it hits Cooks. Thus, this is a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Southern Cooks. Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

SAMOA:
A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN FORCE FOR ALL AREAS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A GALE WARNING EFFECTIVE TODAY
A STORM WATCH FOR ALL ISLANDS EFFECTIVE TONIGHT
A HURRICANE WATCH EFFECTIVE TUESDAY

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
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CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy has strengthened into a major Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast now to reach Category 4 status in the next 24-28 hours. It has picked up forward speed and is moving southeast at 15 kt. It currently lies about 220 miles (355 km) northeast of Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks and 235 miles (380 km) northnorthwest of Aitutaki.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number SIX for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/1803 UTC 2005 UTC.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, AIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [935hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 160.9W OR ABOUT 220 MILES NORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 235 MILES NORTHNORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI AT 141700 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTH. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF AITUTAKI OR 220 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAUKE AT 150500 UTC AND ABOUT 37 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHNORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 151700UTC.

FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 65 KNOTS THIS EVENING. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING FURTHER TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE, 70 KNOTS GUSTING 95 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY WITH FREQUENT SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ROUGH SEAS RISING HIGH TO VERY HIGH TONIGHT. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY EARLY TOMORROW.

FOR PALMERSTON: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, TURNING SOUTHERLY AND POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS, 30 TO 35 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE PASSES TO THE EAST OF PALMERSTON. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING MORE FREQUENT LATER TODAY. ROUGH SEAS RISING TO VERY ROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 35 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS LATER TODAY. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER MAY DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW IF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK. RAIN BECOMING HEAVY WITH SCATTERED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ROUGH SEAS RISING TO VERY ROUGH. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 152100UTC OR EARLIER.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks should be now be undertaking Cyclone Preparedness Measures in line for a major Category 4 Cyclone. This is a very dangerous situation for the Southern Cooks. Preparedness measures should now be completed on Palmerston and Aitutaki, and completed soon on Rarotonga and the all other islands. Special attention should be taken along the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a another major cyclone, and there may be very little time between storms to recover or do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and increasingly very dangerous situation, but with the same careful planning shown during Cyclone Meena earlier this month, the Cooks can be ready.

The models continue to be divergent on which way Nancy will pass through the Cooks and how fast. Nancy has continued to have a more easterly component than originally forecast. A southerly turn is still predicted, but now if that should happen as forecast, it will bring the storm over or near Aitutake, Manuae, Takutea and Rarotonga. How each island or atoll fairs will depend on the timing of the forecasted southerly turn. Palmerston Atoll (approximate population 50) has had a fairly fortuitous escape as the southern turn has still not occurred. Now attention turns to Aitutake which is already damaged from Cyclone Meena, earlier this month. On the current forecast track these winds should be at a Category 1/2 level. However, should the southerly turn come in the next few hours, a more direct hit could occur causing winds to be at Category 3/4 levels. With most of the main Cook Islands lying to the south and southeast of Nancy, the exact path and the time of the predicted southern turn now becomes critical.
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CYCLONE OLAF
Cyclone Olaf is still located between Tuvalu and Tokelau, about 415 miles (665 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 400 miles (640 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. Olaf is moving eastsoutheast at 10 kt. Olaf is forecast to continue strengthening and turn southeast. It is now a Category 3/4 cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone in 12-36 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over Samoa and America Samoa. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FIFTEEN (15) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 141700Z OR 6:00 A.M. 14th FEBRUARY 2005.

……..A STORM WATCH IS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS…..…

…….. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAMOA ………….

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5 SOUTH 179.6 WEST OR 347 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 141200Z OR 1:00 A.M THIS MORNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 135 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IF OLAF CONTINUES MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL RELOCATE TO ABOUT 10.6 SOUTH 175.8WEST OR ABOUT 255 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 150000Z OR 1:00 P.M THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL RELOCATE TO ABOUT 11.8 SOUTH 174.6 WEST OR 155 MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 150900Z OR 10 P.M. TONIGHT.

FOR SAMOA :
NORTEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SAVAII FROM 7:00 PM TONIGHT OR EARLIER, AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 65 TO 80 MPH LATE AT NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT UPOLU   FROM 10:00 PM TONIGHT OR EARLIER AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 65 TO 80 MPH TOMORROW MORNING.  CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING WILL AFFECT LOW LYING NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE PUBLIC ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT POSSIBLE FLOODS FROM HEAVY FALLS MAY OCCUR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass very near or over Apia as a Category 4/5 Cyclone on Tuesday morning. All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be readying preparations consistent with a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Olaf continues to intensify and is now forecast to be a very destructive Super Cyclone. After striking Samoa and American Samoa, Olaf is currently forecast to move toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. This is a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Cooks.

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NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, but should Olaf's southerly turn come later than forecast, some of the southern groups could be directly affected.

TUVALU, FIJI and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu, Fiji and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the system cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Both Cyclones are now major storms capable of very destructive damage to any area that receives a direct or near direct hit,

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org