APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #8, 2005: Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf Intensify as They Bear Down on Cooks and Samoa

Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf continue to intensify. Nancy is bearing down on the Southern Cooks and Olaf is bearing down on Samoa and American Samoa. Both Nancy and Olaf are now major cyclones and are likely to reach Category 3/4 tomorrow, and thus this is a very dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Southern Cooks. Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

SAMOA:
A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN FORCE FOR ALL AREAS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A GALE WARNING EFFECTIVE MONDAY FOR ALL AREAS
A STORM WATCH EFFECTIVE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS
A HURRICANE WATCH EFFECTIVE TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
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CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy has strengthened into a major Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast now to reach Category 4 status in the next 24-28 hours. It is moving southeast at 9 kt. It currently lies about 85 miles (135 km) southeast of Suwarrow, Northern Cooks and 230 miles (370 km) northnortheast of Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/1205 UTC 2005 UTC.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [950hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 162.2W OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SUWARROW OR ABOUT 230 MILES NORTHNORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON AT 141200 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 9 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTH. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 95 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 135 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 110 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 150 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY IS INTENSIFYING. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 190 MILES NORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON OR 205 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI AT 150000 UTC AND ABOUT 110 MILES NORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 136 MILES EASTNORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON AT 151200UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 65 KNOTS DEVELOPING DURING TODAY, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KNOTS GUSTING 70 KNOTS THIS EVENING. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY WITH FREQUENT SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ROUGH SEAS RISING TO VERY ROUGH TOMORROW AND BECOMING VERY HIGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 65 KNOTS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY WITH FREQUENT SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ROUGH SEAS RISING TO VERY ROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 35 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS LATER TODAY. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A SOUTHWARD TRACK. RAIN BECOMING HEAVY WITH SCATTERED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 141500UTC OR EARLIER.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks should be now be undertaking Cyclone Preparedness Measures in line for a major Category 3/4 Cyclone. This is a very dangerous situation for the Southern Cooks. Preparedness measures should now be rushed to completion on Palmerston and Aitutaki, and completed early tomorrow on Rarotonga and the other islands. Special attention should be taken along the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a another major cyclone, and there may be very little time between storms to recover or do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and increasingly very dangerous situation, but with the same careful planning shown during Cyclone Meena earlier this month, the Cooks can be ready.

The models are divergent on which way Nancy will pass through the Cooks and how fast. Some show a more easterly trend and some a more southerly. How each island or atoll fairs will depend on the timing of the forecasted southerly turn. In any case, Palmerston Atoll (approximate population 50) will be the first area to experience hurricane-force winds. On the current forecast track these winds should be at a Category 1/2 level. However, should the southerly turn come in the next few hours, a more direct hit could occur causing winds to be at Category 3/4 levels. However, a quick turn to the south now would lessen the chances of a direct hit on Aitutake, Rarotonga and the other groups to the southeast. Hopefully, Nancy will continue to pick up forward speed and pass quickly out of the area, before Cyclone Olaf heads down more slowly. This would give areas of the Southern Cooks affected by Cyclone Nancy 24-36 hours to recover before Olaf's onslaught.
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CYCLONE OLAF
Cyclone Olaf is still located between Tuvalu and Tokelau, about 550 miles (885 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 460 miles (740 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. Olaf is moving east at 5 kt. Olaf is forecast to continue strengthening and turn southeast. It is now a Category 2 cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 3/4 in 24-48 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over Samoa and America Samoa. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4 Cyclone.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FOURTEEN (14) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 141100Z OR 12:00 A.M. 14th FEBRUARY 2005.

……. A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SAMOA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS…..
…….. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAMOA ………

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS RELOCATED NEAR 9.3 SOUTH 177.7 WEST OR 383 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 140600Z OR 6:30 P.M THIS EVENING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 95 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IF OLAF CONTINUES MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL LOCATE ABOUT 12.8 SOUTH 173.8WEST OR ABOUT 72 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 151800Z OR 7:AM TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR SAMOA : EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST TOMORROW. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHWEST SAVAII WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING TOMORROW.

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass very near or over Apia as a Category 3/4 Cyclone on Tuesday morning. All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be readying preparations consistent with a Category 3/4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Olaf has the potential for more rapid growth and this should also be watched closely. After striking Samoa and American Samoa, Olaf is currently forecast to move toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. This is a very dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Cooks.

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NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, but should Olaf's southerly turn come later than forecast, some of the southern groups could be directly affected.

TUVALU, FIJI and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu, Fiji and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the system cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Although both storms are still small, there is significant potential for damage over a wide area for islands in their path, if they strengthen significantly over the next 24-48 hours.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org