APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #18, 2005: SUPER CYCLONE OLAF ALERTS AND WARNINGS UPGRADED FOR NIUE AND SOUTHERN COOKS

Super-Cyclone Olaf continues moving away from American Samoa in the direction of the Southern Cook Islands. Olaf is situated about 130 miles (115 km) southeast of the Manu'a Group, American Samoa and is moving southeast at 14 kt. Olaf has peaked in intensity but continues as a major Category 5 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

THE COOK ISLANDS AND NIUE MUST CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT AND MONITOR OLAF VERY CLOSELY

The forecast is for Olaf to continue southeast as a Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale for the next 12 hours. After that Olaf is forecast to be approaching the Southern Cooks as a strong Category 4/5 storm in 24-36 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf has the storm tracking between Niue and the Southern Cooks passing about 175-225 miles west of Rarotonga. This is an optimal track because if this path were to be maintained, minimal damage would result to either Niue or the Southern Cooks although seas would be very rough and high wind warnings or even gale warnings would be in effect.

However, even a modest deviation to this track eastward would increase the threat to the Southern Cooks or a deviation more south or westward would heighten the risk for Niue. Nancy remains a strong, extratropical storm to the south which could further complicate forecasting. The Cooks have already been directly hit by Cyclone Nancy and Cyclone Meena in the last two weeks, so coastal areas are particularly vulnerable. Since many businesses and homes are boarded up and taken preparedness for Cyclone Nancy, there is merit to leaving relevant preparedness measures in place for the next 24-48 until the path of Olaf is better known, and more informed decisions can be made.

Warnings have now been upgraded for both Niue and the Southern Cooks as follows:

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Southern Cooks ON TC OLAF
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 17/0257 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR
THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [920HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 168.1W AT 170000 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 100 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN COOKS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR PALMERSTON: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TONIGHT. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TO RAIN TOMORROW, HEAVY AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS INCREASING TO VERY ROUGH DURING TOMORROW. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING TOMORROW. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TOMORROW NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TO RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TOMORROW. ROUGH SEAS INCREASING TO VERY ROUGH TOMORROW. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 170600 UTC.

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NIUE ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Niue ON TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 17/0414 UTC 2005 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Warning

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [920HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 167.5W AT 170300 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 100 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE EAST OF NIUE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 45 to 55 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING 85 KILOMETRES PER HOUR, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 65 TO 75 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING 100 KILOMETRES PER HOUR DURING TOMORROW. SOME SHOWERS TODAY, RAIN DEVELOPING WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. ROUGH SEAS, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TOMORROW. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Niue will be issued around 170700 UTC or earlier.
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The following is a full and current list of Watches and Warnings that continue to cover a wide area of the South Pacific:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WATERS ABOUT PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT AND STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

NIUE
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

SAMOA:
WIND ADVISORY: WIND ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA DUE TO FRESH AND GUSTY WINDS.
FLOOD ADVISORY:FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL LOW LYING AREA.

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TUVALU WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org