APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #17, 2005: SUPER CYCLONE OLAF MOVES AWAY FROM AMERICAN SAMOA; SOUTHERN COOKS AND NIUE ON ALERT

Super-Cyclone Olaf has made a direct hit on American Samoa's Manu'a Islands early this morning and is now moving away from American Samoa in the direction of the Southern Cook Islands. Olaf is situated 100 miles (160 km) southeast of the Manu's group and is moving southeast at 9 kt. Olaf looks like it has peaked in intensity. (For information on the situation on the Manu'a Group see APCEDI Report #16). Assessments and clean-up will start later this afternoon on the Manu'a Group and will get into full swing into tomorrow as the winds abate. Flights in and out of Samoa and the Cook Islands have resumed today.

The Australian Broadcast Corporation (ABC) has also reported about 3 fishing boats which have gone missing in the northern waters of American Samoa. These boats had a combined crew of 18 men.

The Cook Islands and Niue must now be very vigilant and monitor Olaf very closely.

The forecast is for Olaf to continue southeast as a Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale for the next 12 hours. After that Olaf is forecast to be approaching the Southern Cooks as a strong Category 4/5 storm in 24-48 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf has the storm tracking between Niue and the Southern Cooks passing about 175-225 miles west of Rarotonga. This is an optimal track because if this path were to be maintained, minimal damage would result to either Niue or the Southern Cooks although seas would be very rough and high wind warnings or even gale warnings would be in effect.

However, even a modest deviation to this track eastward could increase the threat to the Southern Cooks or a deviation more southward could heighten the risk for Niue. The Cooks have already been directly hit by Cyclone Nancy and Cyclone Meena in the last two weeks, so coastal areas are particularly vulnerable. Since many businesses and homes are boarded up and taken preparedness for Cyclone Nancy, there is merit to leaving relevant preparedness measures in place for the next 24-48 until the path of Olaf is better known, and more informed decisions can be made.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 170100
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-170400-

BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF...LOCAL STATEMENT 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
2 PM SST WED FEB 16 2005

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A STORM WARNING FOR MANU'A IS CANCELLED...
...A GALE WARNING FOR MANU'A...

...WIND INFORMATION...
GALE FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MANUA ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED AND TAKEN INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND GLASS DOORS WHEN WINDS GET STRONG AND GUSTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE OLAF.

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUTUILA AND ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANUA...AT ABOUT 1 PM WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE OLAF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH IN THE PAST 3 HOURS.

...TIDE IMPACTS...
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 FEET TODAY...PRODUCING SURF HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 25 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ON ALL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE AS THEY ARE BEING INUNDATED BY DESTRUCTIVE SURF AND WAVES. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 PM WEDNESDAY.
$$

Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 8 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WATERS ABOUT PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL SOUTHERN COOKS

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR ALL NIUE AND NIUE WATERS.

SAMOA:
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA DUE TO FRESH AND GUSTY WINDS
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA

AMERICAN SAMOA:
...A GALE WARNING FOR MANU'A

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TUVALU WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org