APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #16, 2005: SUPER CYCLONE OLAF MAKES DIRECT HIT ON MANU'A ISLANDS-TAKES AIM ON COOKS

Super-Cyclone Olaf has made a direct hit on American Samoa's Manu'a Islands. Olaf is situated 15 miles (25 km) southeast of Manu'a Group, moving southeast at 14 kt.

APCEDI talked to Philo Jennings of the American Samoa Department of Education who is monitoring the situation on the Manu'a Group for the Government. He had just spoken with the Principle of Manu'a School who said the eye had past directly over Ta'u in last few hours. The 1,300 residents of the 3 Manu'a Islands, Ta'u, Ofu and Olosega have weathered the storm in shelters on each island. In Tau, the 845 residents continue to ride out the storm in the main high school and on Ofu and Olosega the 230 residents of both islands are sheltering in the main churches. The Principal has reported that all residents are safe and well, but that it is likely that the property damage from the storm is very severe. Waves were already coming well over the coastal road when the men were forced to retreat to the shelters and large amounts of debris have been flying about outside the school. A reconnaissance plane will leave for the island later this afternoon, and it will land if the airstrip is still functional and clear of debris.

For Samoa, to the west, this was a very lucky break. The two main islands of Samoa, Savai'i and Upolu have had a most fortuitous escape due to the sudden eastern turn of Olaf yesterday morning. Reports are now coming in of widespread light damage such as trees and powerlines down in some area, but nothing like would have happened with a direct hit from Olaf.

Likewise the main island of Tutuila on American Samoa largely escaped severe damage although there are many reports of widespread light to locally moderate damage especially from the east side of the island. The 70 evacuation shelters will begin allowing people to go home at about noon local time.

After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 5 Cyclone. The Cooks have already been directly hit by Cyclone Nancy and Cyclone Meena in the last two weeks. Niue may also get a glancing blow from the storm. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for the Manu'a Group in American Samoa for the next 4-6 hours until Olaf pulls away. The Cook Islands and Niue must now be very vigilant and monitor this storm very closely.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

...A HURRICANE WARNING FOR MANUA CONTINUES...

...A STORM WARNING FOR TUTUILA AND AUNUU CONTINUES...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF MANUA SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS. THE DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF IS MOVING DIRECTLY OVER MANUA NOW AND THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT AS THE EYE OF HURRICANE OLAF MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS...FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED BY THE MANUA ISLANDS...BUT PLEASE BE WARNED THAT THIS WILL NOT LAST AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE EYE WALL WILL AGAIN BRING DEVASTATING WINDS FROM THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. ALL RESIDENTS OF MANUA MUST CONTINUE TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE OLAF.

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED AT 14.0 SOUTH 169.4 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF TAU AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE OLAF IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WITH WINDS OF 160 MPH AND GUSTS TO 190 NEAR THE CENTER. HURRICANE OLAF IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE MANUA ISLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 MPH.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGE AND VERY HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES OF 30 TO 40 FEET ON ALL SHORES OF MANUA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG LOW LYING AREAS OF ALL ISLANDS BEING INUNDATED BY THESE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 100 TO 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DEVASTATE ALL OF THE MANUA ISLANDS. WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL AFFECT TUTUILA AND AUNUU.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OLAF ARE CONTINUOUSLY MOVING OVER TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA THIS MORNING....CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND
OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING HEAVY DOWNPOUR. HURRICANE OLAF HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE THAT WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY.

AKAPO
$$
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Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL SOUTHERN COOK WATERS.

SAMOA:
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA DUE TO FRESH AND GUSTY WINDS
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR MANUA CONTINUES
A STORM WARNING FOR TUTUILA AND AUNUU CONTINUES...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org