APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #19, 2005: SUPER CYCLONE OLAF PASSING BETWEEN NIUE AND SOUTHERN COOKS

Cyclone Olaf continues to move between Niue and the Southern Cooks. Olaf is situated about 460 km east of Niue and is moving southeast at 10-12 kt. Olaf has peaked in intensity but continues as a major Category 4 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

THE COOK ISLANDS AND NIUE MUST CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT AND MONITOR OLAF VERY CLOSELY

The forecast is for Olaf to continue southeast as a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale for the next 12 hours. After that, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf has the storm passing 300-350 km west of the Southern Cooks as a strong Category 4 storm in the next 12-24 hours.

This continues to be an optimal track as minimal damage would result to either Niue or the Southern Cooks although seas would be very rough and high wind warnings or even gale warnings would be in effect.

However, both Niue and the Southern Cooks should continue to be vigilant for a further 24 hours, as even a modest deviation to this track eastward would increase the threat to the Southern Cooks or a deviation westward would heighten the risk for Niue. While the forecasts are continuing to look encouraging, Olaf remains a strong and destructive storm and care should be taken until it leaves the area. The Cooks have already been directly hit by Cyclone Nancy and Cyclone Meena in the last two weeks, so coastal areas are particularly vulnerable. Since many businesses and homes are boarded up and taken preparedness for Cyclone Nancy, there is merit to leaving relevant preparedness measures in place for the next 24 hours until Olaf has moved well away into the Southern Ocean.

Warnings for Niue and the Southern Cooks as follows:

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number SIX for Southern Cooks ON TC OLAF
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 17/1754 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON, RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [915HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 165.8W OR 150 MILES WEST OF PALMERSTON AT 171600 UTC. POSITION GOOD. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. OLAF IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS, CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS OF THE
SOUTHERN COOKS.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTRED NEAR 20.0S 164.0W OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 250 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 180000 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 55 KNOTS DURING THE MORNING. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING. ROUGH SEAS, INCREASING TO VERY ROUGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. POSSIBLE SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE MORNING. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TO RAIN LATER TODAY, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS, INCREASING TO VERY ROUGH LATER TODAY. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. POSSIBLE SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING
COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS LATER TODAY. SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS.
HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 172100 UTC or earlier.

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NIUE ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL NIUE AND NIUE WATERS.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NIUE IS NOW CANCELLED.
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The following is a full and current list of Watches and Warnings that continue to cover a wide area of the South Pacific:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WATERS ABOUT PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON, RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

NIUE
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL NIUE AND NIUE WATERS.

SAMOA:
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA DUE TO FRESH AND GUSTY WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL SAMOA.

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TUVALU WATERS.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org