APCEDI ALERT 10F #5, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY CONTINUES BEARING DOWN ON TOKELAU AND SWAINS ISLAND, AMERICAN SAMOA

Cyclone Percy continues moving eastsoutheastward toward Tokelau's three atolls: Atafu (population 500), Nukunonu (population 400) and Fakaofo (population 500) . The Fiji Meteorological Service is maintaining a Gale Warning for Atafu and Storm Warnings for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Percy is now a strong Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the new JTWC and NOAA forecasts could strengthen into a Category 3/4 by the time it passes through Tokelau and Swains Island in 6-18 hours.

Percy is now 100 miles (160 km) westsouthwest of Atafu and 135 miles (220 km) west of Nukunono moving eastsoutheast at 15 knots. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone. The Wellington-based administrator of Tokelau, Neil Walter, who is currently on the Nukunono Atoll has reported that the islands are now prepared.

All atolls have already started to get squalls, and conditions will continue to deteriorate throughout the morning and afternoon. On its current forecast course, Percy will pass 60-80 miles south of Atafu and 40-60 miles south of Nukunono and 50-70 miles southwest of Fakaofo. This course would spare all three atolls from a direct hit by the eyewall but the forecast passage is still close enough to cause considerable damage to coastal areas. Any minor deviation from this forecast course to the east or north could still lead to a direct hit for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Damaging gale-force and storm-force winds will continue to effect the islands for the next 12-24 hours.

The American Samoan island of Swains Island (population 40) is next in line, and Hurricane Warnings have been raised there over night. Authorities there should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa have also raised advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Percy formed very rapidly, and more rapid intensification continues to be forecast in the next 12-24 hours as the storm approaches Tokelau and American Samoa after which it looks like it will take aim on the Cooks.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

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TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE


Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 25/2319 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONU AND FAKAOFO.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [960 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3 DEGREES SOUTH 174.2 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES WEST OF NUKUNONU AT 252300 UTC. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FOREECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF ATAFU OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUKUNONO BY 260600 UTC AND ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FAKAOFO OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF NUKUNONU AT 261200 UTC.

FOR NUKUNONU AND FAKAOFO :
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR ATAFU :
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TOKELAU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 260230 UTC OR EARLIER.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

HURRICANE WARNING
Swains Island (American Samoa)

WTZS81 NSTU 252300
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-260200-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 03
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
12 PM SST FRI FEB 25 2005

HURRICANE WARNING AND STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA...

AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND

A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR
HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS LOCATED AT 8.9 SOUTH 174.9 WEST OR 260 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND OR 380 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 11 AM SST FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 954 MB WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 100 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 140 MPH CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 MPH IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THIS TRACK AND MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL BE NEAR 11.0 SOUTH 171.8 WEST OR 50 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF SWAINS ISLAND AT 1 PM SST SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO 140 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 170 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING THAT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. EVACUATION OF COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORES IS RECOMMENDED BEFORE NIGHTFALL. ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY LIKE BOARDING UP HOUSES AND PUTTING UP STORM SHUTTERS FOR SWAINS ISLAND. ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA AND MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY..

STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND 35 TO 50 MPH TONIGHT WITH WIND RAPIDLY INCREASING TO 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT..

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SWAINS ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY INCREASING THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM FRIDAY.

$$
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org