APCEDI ALERT 10F #3, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON TOKELAU

Cyclone Percy continues moving eastsoutheastward toward Tokelau's three atolls. The Fiji Meteorological Service has now issued a Cyclone Warning and Gale Warning for Tokelau. Percy is approaching Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, but could strengthen into a Category 2/3 by the time in passes over Tokelau in 12-24 hours.

Percy is now 300 miles (485 km) west of Atafu. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu (population 500), Nukunonu (population 400) and Fakaofo (population 500) should now immediately implement cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 2/3 Cyclone . These measures should be rushed to completion as soon as possible. As noted in the warning below, the storm will approach the westernmost atoll of Atafu tomorrow morning. Direct or near direct hits by Percy are possible for all Tokelau islands on the current track.

Authorities in Samoa and American Samoa have also started raising watches and alerts, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south.

Percy has formed very rapidly, and more rapid intensification is still possible in the next 12-36 hours as the storm approaches Tokelau. After Tokelau, Percy on its current course would directly threaten Swains Island of American Samoa and then the Northern Cooks.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SAMOA
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SAMOA WATERS

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES

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TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for the Tokelau Islands
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 25/0802 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU

Tropical Cyclone PERCY [985HPA] centre was located near 8.6 South 177.7 West or about 300 miles to the west of Atafu at 250600 UTC. Cyclone is moving east-southeast 12 knots and intensifying rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre, increasing to 60 knots in the next 6 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from northwest through north to east to south and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

On its forecast track, the cyclone is expected to lie about 100 miles west-southwest of Atafu or 125 miles west of Nukunono by 260600 UTC. The cyclone may bring damaging gale force winds or stronger over Tokelau in the next 24 hours.

For Tokelau :
Expect northwest winds 15 knots, gradually increasing to 25 to 30 knots and gusting to 40 knots early tomorrow. Damaging gale force winds 30 to 35 knots gusting to 55 knots may develop by tomorrow evening as the Cyclone passes to the southwest of Tokelau. Some rain, heavy at times with squally thunderstorms. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy northwest swells.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Tokelau Islands will be issued at 251400 UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org