APCEDI ALERT 10F #2, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY FORMS; TAKES AIM ON TOKELAU

Tropical Depression 10F has developed into Cyclone Percy in the seas between Tuvalu and Tokelau. The Fiji Meteorological Service has issued a Cyclone Alert for Tokelau. Percy is still a minimal cyclone, but authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu (population 500), Nukunonu (population 400) and Fakaofo (population 500) should now immediately implement cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 1/2 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. These measures should be rushed to completion as soon as possible. As noted in the warning below, the storm will approach the westernmost atoll of Atafu tomorrow morning. Direct or near direct hits by Percy are possible for all Tokelau islands on the current track.

Percy has formed very rapidly, and more rapid intensification is still possible in the next 12-36 hours as the storm approaches Tokelau. After Tokelau, Percy on its current course would directly threaten Swains Island of American Samoa and then the Northern Cooks.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
HIGH SURF ADVISORY
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TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for the Tokelau Islands
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 25/0133 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

Tropical Cyclone PERCY [995HPA] centre was located near 8.5 South 178.4 West or about 460 miles to the west of Atafu at 250000 utc. Cyclone is intensifying and moving east-southeast 14 knots and expected to gradually turn east later.
Close to its centre, the cyclone is estimated to have winds of 35 knots with momentary gusts to 55 knots.

On its forecast track, the cyclone is expected to lie about 40 miles west of Atafu by 260600 utc and may bring damaging gale force winds or stronger over Tokelau in the next 36 hours.

For Tokelau :
Expect northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Some rain, heavy at times with squally thunderstorms. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy northwest swells.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Tokelau Islands will be issued at 250800 UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org