APCEDI ALERT 10F #1, 2005: CYCLONE FORMING EAST OF TUVALU

Tropical Depression 10F has rapidly strengthened overnight east of Tuvalu and is now the subject of a Cyclone Formation Alert by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This is roughly the same are where Cyclone Olaf formed, so authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should all monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

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Joint Typhoon Warning Center Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPS21 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/242051ZFEB2005//RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6S3 179.9E6 TO 10.2S3 175.5W8 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 241800Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8 179.6W3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3 179.0W7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8 179.6W3, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM NORTHWEST OF WESTERN SAMOA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) INDICATED IN A 241752Z1 QUIKSCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 252100Z0.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org